Pollution Characteristics and Evaluation on Predication Efforts of O3 in Shandong Province
In this paper,the characteristics of O3 pollution in cities of Shandong Province from 2018 to 2021 were analyzed,and the O3 forecast results of the air quality models in the months with heavier O3 pollution from May to September 2021 were analyzed and evaluated.The results showed that the average annual concentration of O3-8 h(90th 90th percentile)increased first and then decreased in Shandong Province from 2018 to 2021,while O3 pollution fluctuated.The pollution months were mainly from May to September,and the spatial distribution characteristics were"higher in inland,lower in coastal areas",and"higher in central and northern areas,and lower in southern areas".The Ensemble Forecast Model had the best effect on O3 simulation,and its forecasting results had the largest correlation with O3 monitoring values and the minimum deviation.However,it was difficult to predict the peak concentration of O3,and it was easy to miss the report of severe O3 pollution.The simulation effects of WRF-Chem,CMAQ,CAMx and NAQPMS on O3 were slightly worse than that of Ensemble Forecast Model.The simulation effect of CMAQ and CAMx on the days of excellent air quality was obviously better than other models,but their forecast results were systematically lower.However,the forecast results of WRF-Chem and NAQPMS were systematically higher.WRF-Chem could better simulate the days when O3 exceeding the standard,and its 24-hour accuracy on days of moderate and severe air quality was 94.08%and 100%,which was important on guiding the forecast of O3 exceeding the standard,especially of moderate to severe pollution.
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