Evaluation of a Dust Weather Forecast Performance Based on WRF-NAQPMS Model
In order to improve the prediction accuracy of dust weather,using the ECWMF reanalysis data and the near-surface PM10 hourly mass concentration monitoring data,the forecasting ability of WRF-NAQPMS model for the heavy dust process in Gansu Province from March 15 to 21,2021 was evaluated.The results showed that:WRF-NAQPMS could simulate the pollution process to a certain extent,it·s simulation of the"3·15"dust process was consistent with the actual weather.With the extension of forecast time limit,the predicted meteorological field moved faster than the actual meteorological field,resulting in the rapid development of the dust forecast field and the advance of the time of the dust secondary transmission affecting downstream.The local deviation of near surface wind direction was the main meteorological factor leading to the prediction deviation of dust concentration in the Middle East of Gansu Province.During dust period by NAQPMS model,the prediction error of PM10 hour concentration increased gradually with the increase of aging and distance from the sand source.In Hexi area,the simulated values of the dust impact period and the sand-driven concentration were close to the monitoring values,and the correlation coefficient r>0.8 between the simulated value and the monitoring value of PM10 hour mass concentration in Jiayuguan,Jiuquan,and Zhangye.For the cities in the central region,the forecast of dust impact period was slightly biased,and the simulation value was lower than the monitoring value.In other areas of the province,due to the influence of complex underlying surface and meteorological field forecast error,the reference value of dust forecast results was low.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
