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老年住院患者功能下降风险预测模型的系统评价

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目的:系统评价老年住院患者功能下降风险预测模型.方法:检索中英文数据库中用于预测老年住院患者功能下降风险的多变量模型的研究,检索时限为从建库至 2023 年 8月31日.由2 名研究人员筛选文献、提取数据和评价纳入研究的偏倚风险和适应性.结果:共纳入15 项研究,涉及 9 个预测模型,受试者工作特征曲线下面积或C指数为 0.650~0.801,8 个模型大于 0.7.最常见的预测因子是年龄、认知障碍、入院前工具性日常生活活动能力障碍和跌倒史.14 项研究为高偏倚风险,1项为不清楚,所有研究适应性较好.结论:老年住院患者功能下降风险预测模型整体预测性能良好,偏倚风险较高,为未来临床选择模型或开发新模型提供了依据.
Risk prediction models for functional decline in older hospitalized patients:a systematic review
Objective:To systematically review the risk prediction model for functional decline in older hospitalized patients.Methods:Studies of multivariate models for predicting the risk of functional decline in older hospitalized patients were searched in Chinese and English databases from their inception to August 31,2023.Two researchers screened the articles,extracted the data,and evaluated the risk of bias and applicability of the included studies.Results:A total of 15 studies involving 9 prediction models were included.The area under the Receiver Operating characteristic Curve or C-index ranged from 0.650 to 0.801,and 8 models were greater than 0.7.The most common predictors were age,cognitive impairment,impairment in instrumental Activities of Daily Living before admission,and history of falls.Fourteen studies were at high risk of bias,one was unclear,and all had good applicability.Conclusion:The overall performance of the risk prediction models for functional decline in older hospitalized patients is good,but the risk of bias is high.It provides a basis for future clinical selection of models or development of new models.

agedhospitalizationfunctional declineprediction modelsystematic review

陈潇潇、陆静、施小青

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苏州大学附属第一医院护理部,215006 江苏省苏州市

苏州大学护理学院

老年人 住院 功能下降 预测模型 系统评价

江苏省老年健康科研项目

LK2021018

2024

中国护理管理
卫生部医院管理研究所

中国护理管理

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:2.545
ISSN:1672-1756
年,卷(期):2024.24(4)
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