Remaining Useful Life Prediction Method for Multi-Component System Considering Maintenance:Subsea Christmas Tree System as A Case Study

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外文摘要：Maintenance is an important technical measure to maintain and restore the performance status of equipment and ensure the safety of the production process in industrial production,and is an indispensable part of prediction and health management.However,most of the existing remaining useful life(RUL)prediction methods assume that there is no maintenance or only perfect maintenance during the whole life cycle;thus,the predicted RUL value of the system is obviously lower than its actual operating value.The complex environment of the system further increases the difficulty of maintenance,and its maintenance nodes and maintenance degree are limited by the construction period and working conditions,which increases the difficulty of RUL prediction.An RUL prediction method for a multi-omponent system based on the Wiener process considering maintenance is proposed.The performance degradation model of components is established by a dynamic Bayesian network as the initial model,which solves the uncertainty of insufficient data problems.Based on the experience of experts,the degree of degradation is divided according to Poisson process sim-ulation random failure,and different maintenance strategies are used to estimate a variety of condition maintenance factors.An example of a subsea tree system is given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

外文关键词：

remaining useful lifeWiener processdynamic Bayesian networksmaintenancesubsea Christmas tree system

作者：

WU Qi-bing、CAI Bao-ping、FAN Hong-yan、WANG Guan-nan、RAO Xi、GE Wei-feng、SHAO Xiao-yan、LIU Yong-hong

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作者单位：

CNOOC Safety Technology Services Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 300456,China

College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering,China University of Petroleum,Qingdao 266580,China

CNOOC EnerTech,Safety&Environmental Protection Branch,Tianjin 300456,China

基金：

National Key Research and Development Program of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaHigh Tech Ship Research Project of Ministry of Industry and Information TechnologyHigh Tech Ship Research Project of Ministry of Industry and Information TechnologyScience Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of Shandong ProvinceTaishan Scholars Projectsub project of the major special project of CNOOC Development Technology

项目编号：

2022YFC300480252171287523251072023GXB01-05-004-03GXBZH2022-293ZR2022JQ25tsqn201909063HFKJ-2D2X-AQ-2021-03

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.1007/s13344-024-0017-y

中国海洋工程(英文版)

中国海洋学会

中国海洋工程(英文版)

CSTPCDEI

影响因子：0.338

ISSN：0890-5487

年,卷(期)：2024.38(2)

参考文献量32