Abstract
Due to the high potential risk and many influencing factors of subsea horizontal X-tree installation,to guarantee the successful completion of sea trials of domestic subsea horizontal X-trees,this paper established a modular risk evaluation model based on a fuzzy fault tree.First,through the analysis of the main process oftree down and combining the Offshore&Onshore Reliability Data(OREDA)failure statistics and the operation procedure and the data provided by the job,the fault tree model of risk analysis of the tree down installation was established.Then,by introducing the natural language of expert comprehensive evaluation and combining fuzzy principles,quantitative analysis was carried out,and the fuzzy number was used to calculate the failure probability of a basic event and the occurrence probability of a top event.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of basic events,the basic events of top events significantly affected were determined,and risk control and prevention measures for the corresponding high-risk factors were pro-posed for subsea horizontal X-tree down installation.
基金项目
National Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Innovation Special Project(MC-201901-S01-04)
Key Research and Development Program of Shandong Province(Major Innovation Project)(2022CXGC020405)
Key Research and Development Program of Shandong Province(Major Innovation Project)(2023CXGC010415)
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据