J-tube provides external protection for submarine cables to avoid large movement and deformation under wave and current loads.However,due to local scouring of the seabed during the operation period,the location of the submarine cable's mud outlet is changed,resulting in free spanning of the submarine cable,which affects its structural strength.OrcaFlex software is used to establish an analysis model.For the environmental parameters under different local scour depths and return periods,the nonlinear time domain method is used to evaluate the structural state of the submarine cables.According to the calculation results,the minimum bending radius of the submarine cable is a limit condition,which occurs in the bell mouth area of the J-tube.When the distance between the J-tube and the submarine mud line changes from 0.315 m to 1.500 m,the minimum bending radius during a 1-year return period is from 3.106 m to 3.526 m,with a fluctuation range of 13.5%.The minimum bending radius during a 100-year return period is from 2.835 m to 3.123 m,with a fluctuation range of 10.2%.The submarine cables are more dangerous under a 100-year return period.