采用认知可靠性和差错分析法(Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method,CREAM)对固定式海上风机安装作业的人因可靠性进行评估,并引入结构熵权法和马尔可夫方法对传统CREAM进行改进,实现人因差错概率、平均人为差错时间等人因可靠性指标的定量计算.在充分结合现实条件的情况下,考虑海上风机安装的天气、海浪和操作水平等环境和人为因素的影响,针对固定式海上风机安装作业的要求和特点,结合作业人员可靠性评估结果,从操作素质、组织管理、环境改善等方面提出发展建议.
Human Reliability Analysis of Offshore Wind Turbine Installation Based on CREAM Model
The human factor reliability of the fixed offshore wind turbine installation operation is evaluated by Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method(CREAM),and the traditional CREAM is improved by introducing structural entropy weight method and Markov method to realize the quantitative calculation of human factor reliability indexes such as human factor error probability and average human error time.With the full integration of realistic conditions and considering the influence of environmental and human factors such as weather,waves and operation level of the offshore wind turbine installation,the development suggestions are made in terms of operation quality,organization and management,and environment improvement in view of the requirements and characteristics of the fixed offshore wind turbine installation operations and the results of operator reliability assessment.
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