基于层次模型的极地船舶-冰山碰撞风险评估
Hierarchical model-based risk assessment of polar ship-iceberg collision
董海波 1卞鑫 1柴威 2刘俊杰 1李政杰 1赵南1
作者信息
- 1. 中国船舶科学研究中心,江苏 无锡 214082;深海技术科学太湖实验室,江苏 无锡 214082;船舶结构安全全国重点实验室,江苏 无锡 214082
- 2. 武汉理工大学 船海与能源动力工程学院,湖北 武汉 430063
- 折叠
摘要
[目的]为确保极地船舶航行安全,开展典型海域船舶-冰山碰撞风险评估.[方法]针对船舶在巴伦支海航行的情景,在识别风险影响要素的基础上,构建船舶-冰山碰撞层次模型;提出一种改进的要素权重系数确定方法,通过与要素模糊评价相结合,发展形成一套完整的碰撞风险研究方法;结合专家意见,采用所提方法对碰撞风险进行计算和评估.[结果]结果显示,极地船舶在巴伦支海航行过程中碰撞冰山的风险等级为中等偏高,冰山冰况、人为失误和船舶自身是造成碰撞风险最主要的 3 个要素.[结论]极地船舶在巴伦支海航行时,应对冰山潜在的危险给予足够的重视,并采取必要的控制措施防止碰撞发生.
Abstract
[Objective]In order to ensure the navigation safety of polar ships,ship-iceberg collision risk as-sessment is carried out in typical sea areas.[Methods]Considering the scenario of a ship sailing in the Bar-ents Sea,this study constructs a hierarchical model of ship-iceberg collision on the basis of identifying the risk influencing factors,then proposes an improved method for determining the factor weight coefficient.Com-bined with a fuzzy evaluation of factors,a comprehensive approach to calculating risks is developed.The colli-sion risk is then calculated and assessed using the method in this paper in combination with expert opinions.[Results]The risk of ship-iceberg collision in the Barents Sea is slightly higher than the medium level,and the three main factors behind the collision risk are the iceberg conditions,human error and the ship itself.[Conclusion]When polar ships sail in the Barents Sea,attention should be paid to the potential danger posed by icebergs,and the necessary control measures should be taken to avoid collision.
关键词
风险评估/层次分析法/碰撞/专家意见/模糊数Key words
risk assessment/analytic hierarchy process/collision/expert opinion/fuzzy number引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据