Hierarchical model-based risk assessment of polar ship-iceberg collision
[Objective]In order to ensure the navigation safety of polar ships,ship-iceberg collision risk as-sessment is carried out in typical sea areas.[Methods]Considering the scenario of a ship sailing in the Bar-ents Sea,this study constructs a hierarchical model of ship-iceberg collision on the basis of identifying the risk influencing factors,then proposes an improved method for determining the factor weight coefficient.Com-bined with a fuzzy evaluation of factors,a comprehensive approach to calculating risks is developed.The colli-sion risk is then calculated and assessed using the method in this paper in combination with expert opinions.[Results]The risk of ship-iceberg collision in the Barents Sea is slightly higher than the medium level,and the three main factors behind the collision risk are the iceberg conditions,human error and the ship itself.[Conclusion]When polar ships sail in the Barents Sea,attention should be paid to the potential danger posed by icebergs,and the necessary control measures should be taken to avoid collision.
risk assessmentanalytic hierarchy processcollisionexpert opinionfuzzy number
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