Trends of acute viral hepatitis B incidence in Zhejiang province from 2005 to 2022 based on joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models
Objective To analyze trends in incidence of acute viral hepatitis B in Zhejiang province from 2005 to 2022.Methods We obtained data on acute hepatitis B cases reported during 2005-2022 from the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and used joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort(APC)models to estimate average annual percent change(AAPC)of reported incidence and determine age,period,and birth cohort effects.Results A total of 44 778 acute hepatitis B cases were reported in Zhejiang from 2005 to 2022,for an average annual reported incidence of 4.76 per 100 000 population.Joinpoint regression showed that the AAPC(95％CI)of incidence was-11.74％(-12.65％～-10.82％),ranging from-18.61％(-19.69％～-17.52％)in 0-19-year-olds to-7.89％(-11.95％～-3.64％)in ≥60-year-olds.The APC model showed that incidences per 100 000 declined from 33.60 in 0-year-olds to 11.62 in 1-year-olds,increased from 3.17 in 15-year-olds to 6.16 in 20-year-olds,and then declined continuously.Relative risk decreased from 2.07(1.96-2.18)in 2005 to 0.28(0.26-0.31)in 2022 and ranged from 0.01(0.00-0.04)in births in 2020 to 1 032.31(319.80-3 332.26)in births in 1923;net drift was-11.20％(-11.50％～-10.90％),with local drifts in all ages ranging from-18.56％(-19.53％～-17.58％)to-3.44％(-9.06％-2.52％).Conclusions The incidence of acute hepatitis B decreased from 2005 to 2022 in Zhejiang,showing remarkable achievement in childhood hepatitis B prevention and control.We suggest strengthening hepatitis B prevention and control among adults.
Acute viral hepatitis BIncidenceJoinpoint regression modelAge-period-cohort model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
