首页|上海市两个区18-60岁人群对父母接种流感疫苗的意愿及其预测模型构建

上海市两个区18-60岁人群对父母接种流感疫苗的意愿及其预测模型构建

Willingness of 18-60-year-olds to have their parents vaccinated against influenza in two districts of Shanghai,and construction of a willingness prediction model

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目的 评价18-60岁人群对父母接种流感疫苗的意愿并构建预测模型.方法 采用方便抽样方法于2022年10-11月在上海市2个区37个接种门诊选择18-60岁居民开展网络问卷调查,分析其对父母流感疫苗接种的意愿及其影响因素,构建影响因素的列线图模型以预测意愿概率,采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、校准曲线和拟合优度检验评价模型的预测效能、校准度和拟合优度.结果 调查对象对其父母流感疫苗接种的总意愿率为77.84%(2 943/3 781),多因素 Logistic 回归分析显示公共部门就业和无业(OR=1.27,95%CI:1.03-1.57;OR=1.62,95%CI:1.22-2.16)、购买商业医疗保险(OR=1.34,95%CI:1.01-1.76)、单渠道和多渠道获取知识(0R=2.10,95%CI:1.67-2.64;OR=3.10,95%CI:2.40-3.99)、流感疫苗知识知晓度高(OR=1.74,95%CI:1.27-2.39)、自身愿意接种流感疫苗(OR=12.29,95%CI:10.01-14.96)的调查对象的意愿更高.在构建的预测模型中,ROC曲线下面积为0.826(95%CI:0.808-0.843);预测概率与实际概率的平均误差为-0.002 1±0.007 5;拟合优度较好(x2=-2 916.50,P=1.000).结论 调查地区18-60岁人群对父母流感疫苗接种的意愿较高,构建的列线图模型的预测效能较好.建议重点加强青壮年人群多渠道流感/流感疫苗知识宣传,促进其父母特别是老年人流感疫苗接种.
Objective To assess willingness of 18-60-year-old individuals to have their parents vaccinated against seasonal influenza,and to construct a willingness prediction model.Methods We selected a convenience sample of 18-60-year-old residents who visited any of 37 vaccination clinics in two districts of Shanghai during October and November 2022 for an online questionnaire-based survey.We analyzed subjects'willingness to have their parents vaccinated against influenza and factors influencing subjects'willingness.We constructed a nomogram model of factors to predict the probability of willingness to have parents vaccinated and used receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration curve,and Hosmer-Lemeshow testing to evaluate the efficiency,accuracy,and goodness of fit of the model.Results In total,77.84%(2 943/3 781)of subjects were willing to have their parents vaccinated against influenza.Multivariate logistic regression showed that willingness was high among subjects who worked in the public sector or were unemployed(OR=1.27,95%CI:1.03-1.57;OR=1.62,95%CI:1.22-2.16),who had commercial medical insurance(OR=1.34,95%CI:1.01-1.76),who acquired knowledge through single or multiple channels(OR=2.10,95%CI:1.67-2.64;OR=3.10,95%CI:2.40-3.99),who had a high level of knowledge about influenza vaccine(OR=1.74,95%CI:1.27-2.39),and who themselves were willing to receive influenza vaccine(OR=12.29,95%CI:10.01-14.96).In the constructed prediction model,the area under ROC curve was 0.826(95%CI:0.808-0.843);the average error between predicted and actual probability was-0.002 1±0.007 5,with a high goodness of fit(x2=-2 916.50,P=1.000).Conclusions The willingness of 18-60-year-old individuals to have their parents vaccinated against influenza was high in the surveyed areas,and our prediction model had satisfactory efficiency.We recommend enhancing multi-channel health education on knowledge about influenza and influenza vaccine for young adults in order to promote influenza vaccination of their parents,particularly elderly parents.

Influenza vaccineVaccinationWillingnessPrediction model

尹纯礼、周庆誉、张迈月、赵世莹、朱江、刘景壹、李晓军

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上海市宝山区疾病预防控制中心,上海 201901

复旦大学卫生发展战略研究中心,上海 200032

徐汇区疾病预防控制中心,上海 200237

流感疫苗 预防接种 意愿 预测模型

上海市疾病预防控制青年骨干人才培养项目教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目上海市宝山区医学重点专科B类项目上海市宝山区卫生健康委优青(育才)计划项目

21QNGG2522YJCZH265BSZK-2023-BZ14BSWSYC-2024-23

2024

中国疫苗和免疫
中国疾病预防控制中心

中国疫苗和免疫

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:2.311
ISSN:1006-916X
年,卷(期):2024.30(4)