Trends in the incidence of mumps from 2005 to 2023 in China,Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model analyses
Objective To analyze trends in the incidence of mumps in China.Methods We obtained data on mumps incidence reported to the National Information System for Disease Control and Prevention during 2005-2023.We used Joinpoint regression to analyze changes in mumps incidence and used an age-period-cohort model to determine changes in age-specific incidences and incidence rate ratios(RR)by period and birth cohort for 0-9-year-old children.Results There were 4 787 482 mumps cases reported during 2005-2023 in China,yielding an average annual reported incidence of 18.53 cases per 100 000 total population.Joinpoint regression showed that the average annual percentage change in incidence was-6.99％(95％CI:-11.57％to-4.59％),with inflection points in 2012,2015,and 2019.The age-period-cohort model showed that the age-specific incidence per 100 000 was 5.28 in infants,125.04 in 6-year-olds,and 74.13 in 9-year-olds.Period RRs increased from 0.87(95％CI:0.74-1.02)in 2005 to 2.51(95％CI:2.25-2.81)in 2012 and then declined to 0.38(95％CI:0.32-0.45)in 2023.The cohort RR declined continuously in the 1996-2006 birth cohorts and remained stable in the 2007-2023 cohorts,with the lowest RR in the 2013-2016 cohorts.Conclusions The reported incidence of mumps decreased during 2005-2023 in China.The two-dose mumps vaccination schedule that started in 2020 reduced the incidence of mumps for 0-9-year-old children.
MumpsIncidenceJoinpoint regression modelAge-period-cohort model
万方数据
维普
