Objective To analyze trends in the incidence of mumps in China.Methods We obtained data on mumps incidence reported to the National Information System for Disease Control and Prevention during 2005-2023.We used Joinpoint regression to analyze changes in mumps incidence and used an age-period-cohort model to determine changes in age-specific incidences and incidence rate ratios(RR)by period and birth cohort for 0-9-year-old children.Results There were 4 787 482 mumps cases reported during 2005-2023 in China,yielding an average annual reported incidence of 18.53 cases per 100 000 total population.Joinpoint regression showed that the average annual percentage change in incidence was-6.99％(95％CI:-11.57％to-4.59％),with inflection points in 2012,2015,and 2019.The age-period-cohort model showed that the age-specific incidence per 100 000 was 5.28 in infants,125.04 in 6-year-olds,and 74.13 in 9-year-olds.Period RRs increased from 0.87(95％CI:0.74-1.02)in 2005 to 2.51(95％CI:2.25-2.81)in 2012 and then declined to 0.38(95％CI:0.32-0.45)in 2023.The cohort RR declined continuously in the 1996-2006 birth cohorts and remained stable in the 2007-2023 cohorts,with the lowest RR in the 2013-2016 cohorts.Conclusions The reported incidence of mumps decreased during 2005-2023 in China.The two-dose mumps vaccination schedule that started in 2020 reduced the incidence of mumps for 0-9-year-old children.
关键词
流行性腮腺炎/发病率/Joinpoint回归模型/年龄-时期-队列模型
Key words
Mumps/Incidence/Joinpoint regression model/Age-period-cohort model
维普
万方数据