Construction of a predictive model for the lower extremity deep vein thrombosis of advanced-age puerperas during hospitali-zation after cesarean section
Objective:To analyze the influencing factors of the lower extremity deep vein thrombosis(LEDVT)of ad-vanced-age puerperas during hospitalization after cesarean section,and to construct a Nomogram model.Methods:The clinical data of 202 advanced-age puerperas who had undergone cesarean section from January 2021 to October 2023 were selected in this study.These puerperas were divided into study group(51 cases with LEDVT)and control group(151 without LEDVT)based on whether LEDVT occurrence or not of the puerperas during their postoperative hospi-talization.Logistic regression analysis was applied to screen the risk factors of LEDVT occurrence during the postoper-ative hospitalization of the advanced-age puerperas after cesarean section.R software was applied to establish the No-mograms model for predicting the LEDVT occurrence during the postoperative hospitalization of the advanced-age pu-erperas,and the Nomograms model was evaluated by receiver operator characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test.Results:In 202 advanced-age puerperas who underwent cesarean section,there were 51(25.3％)cases with LEDVT during hospitalization.Logistic regression analysis showed that the history of oral contraceptives(P=0.001,95％CI 1.847-9.183),the history of thrombosis(P=0.006,95％CI 1.336-5.512),the gestational hypertension(P=0.006,95％CI 1.391-7.302)and the gestational diabetes mellitus(P=0.036,95％CI 1.059-5.257)were the independent risk factors of the LEDVT occurrence of the advanced-age puerperas during hospitalization after cesarean section.The area under the ROC curve was 0.763(95％CI 0.693-0.833).The slope of the calibration curve was close to 1,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed X2=5.911,P=0.315.Con-clusion:The occurrence of LEDVT of the advanced-age puerperas during hospitalization after cesarean section is affect-ed by the history of oral contraceptives,history of thrombosis,gestational hypertension,and gestational diabetes mel-litus.The Nomogram model constructed based on these risk factors can predict the risk of LEDVT occurrence of the advanced-age puerperas during hospitalization after cesarean section,and which can provide evidences for the early warning and prevention,and the clinical diagnosis and treatment of LEDVT.
Advanced-age puerperasCesarean sectionDuring hospitalizationLower extremity deep vein thrombo-sisPrediction model
万方数据
维普
