目的 探索中国7～18岁儿童和青少年的体质量指数(Body Mass Index,BMI)和身高与国民经济发展之间的联系,并预测2025-2030年各年龄段儿童和青少年的身高和BMI,为中国未来制定体质干预政策提供参考.方法 1986-2019年7～18岁儿童和青少年的平均BMI和身高数据来自国际心脏代谢危险因素数据库,中国经济发展指标来自中国统计年鉴的历年人均国内生产总值(Gross Domestic Product Per Capita,GDPPC).分别对男女每一个年龄组检验GDPPC和BMI、身高之间的相关性,使用线性回归和非线性回归来预测随着GDPPC的增长,2025-2030年间每个年龄组的平均身高和BM1.结果 男女各年龄组的GDPPC和BMI、身高之间高度相关(P均＜0.01).随着GDPPC的增长,男女各年龄组的BMI稳步增加,但身高增速逐渐下降,各年龄段存在差异.2025-2030年6年的GDPPC增长伴随着7～18岁男、女生的BMI每年增加约0.78％和0.49％,身高每年增加约0.09％和0.18％.结论 7～18岁儿童和青少年的身高和BMI在1986-2019年间呈上升趋势,经济发展高度预测身高和BMI增加,要注意各年龄段男女生身高增长速度的差异以及预防儿童和青少年的超重肥胖趋势.
Relationship between national economic development and height,body mass index among Chinese children and adolescents aged 7-18 from 1986 to 2019
Objective To explore the relationship between the development of the national economy and body mass index(BMI),height of Chinese children and adolescents aged 7-18 years,and to predict the height and BMI of children and adolescents from 2025 to 2030 for the formulation of physical intervention policies in China.Methods The data on the average BMI and height of Chinese children and adolescents aged 7-18 years between 1986 and 2019 were from the interna-tional database of cardiometabolic risk factors.China's economic development indicators were selected from the gross domestic product per capita(GDPPC)of China statistical yearbook over the years.The correlation between GDPPC and BMI,height for each age group among boys and girls,respectively.And linear regression and nonlinear regression models were used to predict the average height and BMI in each age group from 2025 to 2030 with the increase of GDPPC.Results There was a high correlation between GDPPC and BMI,and height in all age groups among boys and girls respectively(all P＜0.01).With the increase of GDPPC,the BMI of boys and girls in all age groups increased steadily but the rate of increase in height continued to decrease.There were differences among different age groups.The increase of GDPPC in the six years from 2025 to 2030 may increase the BMI of boys and girls aged 7-18 years by about 0.78％and 0.49％each year,and the height by about 0.09％and 0.18％each year.Conclusion The height and BMI of children and adolescents aged 7-18 years showed an upward trend from 1986 to 2019.The economic developmeht predicted an increase in height and BMI highly.We should pay attention to the difference in height growth rate between boys and girls of all age groups and prevent the trend of o-verweight and obesity among children and adolescents.
Gross domestic productChildren and adolescentsadolescentHeightBody mass indexPredict
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