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高速列车车轮两阶段退化建模及可靠性分析

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
针对高速列车车轮在退化过程中呈现两阶段特征的问题,提出一种基于两阶段非线性Wie-ner过程的高速列车车轮退化建模及可靠性分析方法.采用CUSUM(CUmulative SUM)算法实现车轮退化过程变点判别,在此基础上,利用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法估计模型未知参数.针对车轮两阶段退化过程较为复杂、可靠度解析形式难以求解的问题,通过蒙特卡罗模拟方法求解得到车轮可靠度函数曲线和可靠寿命.最后以某机车同转向架车轮单个镟修周期内的实测数据为例,验证了模型的有效性.结果表明:受运营环境影响,同转向架不同侧车轮退化过程出现变点的位置不同;相较于未考虑阶段性特征的退化模型,所提模型可靠性评估结果更符合现场实际;通过不断获取车轮退化数据,可采用所提模型计算并更新车轮可靠寿命值,为车轮镟修周期的进一步优化提供了理论指导.
Modeling and Reliability Analysis of Wheel Two-stage Degradation of High-speed Trains
Aiming at the problems that high-speed train wheels showed phased characteristics in the degradation processes,a modeling and reliability analysis method of high-speed train wheel degra-dation was proposed based on two-stage Wiener process.On the basis of the Markov chain Monte-Carlo(MCMC)method to estimate the unknown parameters of the model,the reliability function curve and reliability life of the wheel were obtained by Monte-Carlo simulation method for the prob-lems that the two-stage degradation processes of the wheel were complex and the reliability analysis form was difficult to solve.Finally,the effectiveness of the model was verified by taking the measured data of a locomotive and bogie wheel in a single repair cycle as an example.The results show that due to the operating environment,the change point position of the wheel degradation processes on differ-ent sides of the bogie is different.Compared with the reliability evaluation results of the degradation model without considering the phased characteristics,the proposed model is more in line with the ac-tual field situation.According to the reliable life prediction results,affected by the operating environ-ment,the wheel degradation processes on different sides of the bogie has different changing point po-sitions.By continuously obtaining the wheel degradation data,the reliable life value of the wheels may be calculated and updated by using the model proposed herein,which provides theoretical guidance for the further optimization of the wheel repair cycle.

high-speed train wheeltwo-stage Wiener processreliabilitydegenerate modelingMonte-Carlo simluation

齐金平、刘晓宇、冯洪、李鸿伟、燕大强

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兰州交通大学机电技术研究所,兰州,730070

甘肃省物流及运输装备信息化工程技术研究中心,兰州,730070

甘肃省物流与运输装备行业技术中心,兰州,730070

中国铁路兰州局集团有限公司机务部,兰州,730070

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高速列车车轮 两阶段Wiener过程 可靠度 退化建模 蒙特卡罗模拟

国家自然科学基金甘肃省重点研发项目甘肃省高等学校科研项目甘肃省教育厅优秀研究生"创新之星"项目

7186102117YF1FA1222018A-0262022CXZX-565

2024

10.3969/j.issn.1004-132X.2024.08.007

中国机械工程
中国机械工程学会

中国机械工程

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.678
ISSN：1004-132X
年,卷(期)：2024.35(8)