中国科学(数学)2024,Vol.54Issue(12) :2121-2140.DOI:10.1360/SSM-2024-0086

共型预测方法的发展和应用

Development and application of conformal prediction

金璋 王学钦
中国科学(数学)2024,Vol.54Issue(12) :2121-2140.DOI:10.1360/SSM-2024-0086

共型预测方法的发展和应用

Development and application of conformal prediction

金璋 1王学钦1
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作者信息

  • 1. 中国科学技术大学管理学院国际金融研究院,合肥 230026
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摘要

共型预测通过将预测点扩展成预测集的方式来严谨量化预测的不确定性,它以灵活的结构和严格的有限样本理论保证而著称,可以简单而方便地嵌入几乎任何预测模型中,并随着机器学习的飞速发展而在近年来获得了越来越多的关注.本文综述共型预测相关的发展历程,在回顾共型预测的基础算法和理论同时,也对共型预测无处不在的应用场景进行了介绍.

Abstract

Conformal prediction has gained increasing attention in recent years with the rapid development of machine learning.Known for its flexible structure and strict finite-sample theoretical guarantees,conformal prediction can be quickly and conveniently embedded into almost any prediction model.It performs rigorous uncertainty quantification by expanding prediction points into prediction sets.In this paper,we summarize the development history related to conformal prediction and review the basic algorithms and generalizations of conformal prediction along with the ubiquitous application scenarios of conformal prediction.

关键词

共型预测/机器学习/预测集/不确定性量化

Key words

conformal prediction/machine learning/prediction set/uncertainty quantification

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出版年

2024
中国科学(数学)
中国科学院

中国科学(数学)

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.221
ISSN:1674-7216
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