首页|Modeling the impacts of policy interventions from REDD+ in Southeast Asia: A case study in Indonesia

Modeling the impacts of policy interventions from REDD+ in Southeast Asia: A case study in Indonesia

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Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) and enhancing "removals of greenhouse gas emissions by forests" in developing countries through positive incentives is regarded as an essential component of the post-2012 climate regime for stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions and an important way of engaging developing countries in global mitigation efforts.We aimed to evaluate the potential effectiveness of REDD+ by integrating it into a land use option framework.One of our goals was to develop scenarios for evaluating the impacts of land use changes on carbon and environmental processes.In addition,we aimed to quantify the potential economic benefits to society of compensated reductions and to identify hotspots for applying REDD+.Three land use change scenarios were examined:(Ⅰ) business as usual (BAU),(Ⅱ) economic development,and (Ⅲ) REDD+.A case study in Indonesia was examined using these land use scenarios and policy interventions,evaluating their effects on carbon emissions,socioeconomics,and environmental features of a spatial system using land use models.Significant emissions and water erosion reductions were predicted to be achieved under the REDD+ scenario,due to reduced deforestation of ＜6％ over the next decade; ＞0.14 Mt CO2e reduction was predicted relative to the BAU scenario.Furthermore,the spatial land use model indicated that REDD+ payments of forest carbon credits in the compliance market would play a key role in compensating rural communities and plantation companies for their opportunity cost in ending deforestation.This study provides an example of integrating land use modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and to evaluate the potential impacts of REDD+.

deforestation and forest degradationgreenhouse gas emissionsland useSoutheast Asiapolicy intervention

LU HeLi、LIU GuiFang

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Institute of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, Henan Collaborative Innovation Center for Coordinated Developments in Central China Economic Zone, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China

United Nations University-Institute of Advanced Studies, Yokohama 220-8502, Japan

This project was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Basic Research Program of ChinaNational Basic Research Program of ChinaChina Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded projectChina Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded projectScientific Research Foundation for Returned ScholarsScientific Research Foundation for Returned Scholars

413715252012CB9558002012CB9558042012M5213902013T6069620136932013B065

2014

10.1007/s11430-014-4888-2

中国科学:地球科学(英文版)
中国科学院

中国科学:地球科学(英文版)

CSCDSCIEI
影响因子：1.002
ISSN：1674-7313
年,卷(期)：2014.57(10)
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