首页|Impact of climate change on food security in the Central Asian countries

Impact of climate change on food security in the Central Asian countries

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The current and potential impacts of global warming have generated widespread concerns about food security among all sectors of society.Central Asian countries located deep in the interior of Asia with fragile ecological environments and lower agricultural technology are particularly more prone to severe threats from climate change.Based on panel data acquired in five Central Asian countries from 1990 to 2019,a C-D-C model was developed to study how climate change affects food security in the region and to predict future trends.The study found that the level of food security has generally increased for these five Central Asian countries over the past 30 years,with Kazakhstan and Tajikistan having the highest and lowest food security levels,respectively.The average annual temperature and precipitation exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with the region's food security,with the most positive effect on the food security of Kazakhstan.Extremely high and low temperatures have significantly affected food security in the studied region,with Turkmenistan experiencing the most significant negative impacts.The number of frost days had no significant effect on food security.An analysis of future climate showed that the temperature and precipitation in Central Asia will continue to increase from 2030 to 2090,which will negatively impact the food security of these countries.It is recommended that the Central Asian countries enhance their understanding of climate risks,strengthen scientific climate research,and develop multiple adaptation strategies in advance.Simultaneously,they are encouraged to consolidate international cooperation,reducing greenhouse gas emissions effectively and maintaining the ability to ensure food security.

Global warmingExtreme climateFood securityFuture forecastsFive Central Asian countries

Fang SU、Yu LIU、Lvfan CHEN、Rustam OROZBAEV、Liangcheng TAN

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School of Economics and Management,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,China

School of Economics and Management,Shaanxi University of Science and Technology Xi,an 710021,China

State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,Institute of Earth Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xi'an 710061,China

Institute of Geology,National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyz Republic,Bishkek 720040,Kyrgyzstan

Institute of Global Environmental Change,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710049,China

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Chinese Academy of SciencesShandong Provincial Special Fund

xbzgzdsys-202217LSKJ202203300

2024

10.1007/s11430-022-1198-4

中国科学:地球科学(英文版)
中国科学院

中国科学:地球科学(英文版)

影响因子：1.002
ISSN：1674-7313
年,卷(期)：2024.67(1)
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