首页|Projections of summer light rain frequency in typical terrain over eastern China under wind speed constraint

Projections of summer light rain frequency in typical terrain over eastern China under wind speed constraint

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The variation in near-surface wind speed is a key dynamic parameter in the orographic effect of precipitation over eastern China.In this study,we used the latest high-resolution outputs from six GCMs in CMIP6-HighResMIP to evaluate the performance of high-resolution models in simulating the orographic precipitation characteristics of typical mountainous areas in summer over eastern China.The orographic precipitation under warming scenarios was projected and constrained according to observational data.The results indicated that during the contemporary climate reference period(1979-2009),although the relationship between model-simulated near-surface wind speed and orographic light rain frequency was consistently stable,the sensitivity of the orographic light rain frequency to surface wind variability was generally underestimated,with a deviation approximately 24.1%lower than the observational values.The estimated orographic light rain frequency corrected based on the observed near-surface wind speed under a 1.5℃ warming scenario,was 36.1%lower than that of the contemporary period;this reduction was 8.6 times that without the wind speed constraint(4.2%).The MRI-AGCM3-2-S model,with a longer dataset,demonstrated relatively stable reductions in orographic light rain frequency under different warming scenarios(1.5℃,2℃,3℃,and 4℃)after the application of wind speed constraints.In all cases,the reductions exceeded those for the predictions made without the wind speed constraint.

Frequency of orographic light rainHighResMIPHigh-resolution projectionObservational constraintEastern China

Xuechen DONG、Daoyi GONG、Cuicui SHI

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Institute of Disaster Risk Science,Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China

Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,MOE,Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China

School of National Safety and Emergency Management,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China

School of Systems Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China

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National Key Research and Development Program of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China

2020YFA060820142275180

2024

中国科学:地球科学(英文版)
中国科学院

中国科学:地球科学(英文版)

影响因子:1.002
ISSN:1674-7313
年,卷(期):2024.67(6)