Prediction of solar activities:Sunspot numbers and solar magnetic synoptic maps

Rui ZHUO ¹Jiansen HE ¹Die DUAN ²Rong LIN ³Ziqi WU ¹Limei YAN ⁴Yong WEI⁴

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作者信息

1. School of Earth and Space Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100091,China
2. College of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China
3. School of Earth and Space Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100091,China;Centre for Mathematical Plasma Astrophysics,Department of Mathematics,KU Leuven,Leuven 3001,Belgium
4. Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics,Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China
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Abstract

The evolution of solar magnetic fields is significant for understanding and predicting solar activities.And our knowledge of solar magnetic fields largely depends on the photospheric magnetic field.In this paper,based on the spherical harmonic expansion of the photospheric magnetic field observed by Wilcox Solar Observatory,we analyze the time series of spherical harmonic coefficients and predict Sunspot Number as well as synoptic maps for Solar Cycle 25.We find that solar maximum years have complex short-period disturbances,and the time series of coefficient g70 is nearly in-phase with Sunspot Number,which may be related to solar meridional circulation.Utilizing Long Short-Term Memory networks(LSTM),our prediction suggests that the maximum of Solar Cycle 25 is likely to occur in June 2024 with an error of 8 months,the peak sunspot number may be 166.9±22.6,and the next solar minimum may occur around January 2031.By incorporating Empirical Mode Decomposition,we enhance our forecast of synoptic maps truncated to Order 5,validating their relative reliability.This prediction not only addresses a gap in forecasting the global distribution of the solar magnetic field but also holds potential reference value for forthcoming solar observation plans.

Key words

Solar activity prediction/Solar magnetic field/Spherical harmonic expansion/Long-Short Term Memory(LSTM)/Empirical Mode Decomposition(EMD)

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基金项目

National Natural Science Foundation of China(42241118)

National Natural Science Foundation of China(42174194)

National Natural Science Foundation of China(42150105)

National Natural Science Foundation of China(42204166)

National Natural Science Foundation of China(42241106)

National Natural Science Foundation of China(42074207)

National Key R&D Program of China(2021YFA0718600)

National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFF0503800)

CNSA(D050106)

Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(2021064)

出版年

2024

中国科学:地球科学(英文版)

中国科学院

中国科学:地球科学(英文版)

影响因子：1.002

ISSN：1674-7313

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