首页|Prediction of solar activities:Sunspot numbers and solar magnetic synoptic maps

Prediction of solar activities:Sunspot numbers and solar magnetic synoptic maps

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The evolution of solar magnetic fields is significant for understanding and predicting solar activities.And our knowledge of solar magnetic fields largely depends on the photospheric magnetic field.In this paper,based on the spherical harmonic expansion of the photospheric magnetic field observed by Wilcox Solar Observatory,we analyze the time series of spherical harmonic coefficients and predict Sunspot Number as well as synoptic maps for Solar Cycle 25.We find that solar maximum years have complex short-period disturbances,and the time series of coefficient g70 is nearly in-phase with Sunspot Number,which may be related to solar meridional circulation.Utilizing Long Short-Term Memory networks(LSTM),our prediction suggests that the maximum of Solar Cycle 25 is likely to occur in June 2024 with an error of 8 months,the peak sunspot number may be 166.9±22.6,and the next solar minimum may occur around January 2031.By incorporating Empirical Mode Decomposition,we enhance our forecast of synoptic maps truncated to Order 5,validating their relative reliability.This prediction not only addresses a gap in forecasting the global distribution of the solar magnetic field but also holds potential reference value for forthcoming solar observation plans.

Solar activity predictionSolar magnetic fieldSpherical harmonic expansionLong-Short Term Memory(LSTM)Empirical Mode Decomposition(EMD)

Rui ZHUO、Jiansen HE、Die DUAN、Rong LIN、Ziqi WU、Limei YAN、Yong WEI

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School of Earth and Space Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100091,China

College of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China

Centre for Mathematical Plasma Astrophysics,Department of Mathematics,KU Leuven,Leuven 3001,Belgium

Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics,Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China

College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China

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National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Key R&D Program of ChinaNational Key R&D Program of ChinaCNSAYouth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

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2024

10.1007/s11430-023-1354-4

中国科学:地球科学(英文版)
中国科学院

中国科学:地球科学(英文版)

影响因子：1.002
ISSN：1674-7313
年,卷(期)：2024.67(8)