Impacts of spatially inconsistent permafrost degradation on streamflow in the Lena River Basin

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外文摘要：Although permafrost degradation contributes significantly to hydrological change in cold regions,gaps remain in our under-standing of streamflow variation induced by degrading permafrost in different river basins.We therefore used a deep learning model to simulate the long-term(≥ 30 years)monthly streamflow at 60 hydrological stations along the Lena River,the third longest circum-Arctic river.Analyzing the effects of precipitation,temperature,and thaw depth on streamflow variation throughout the Lena River Basin,we identified two feedback patterns relating streamflow to warming permafrost,observed in areas of continuous and discontinuous permafrost.In northern plain regions with continuous permafrost,94％of stations presented an increasing trend in annual streamflow from the 1900s to the 2010s due to permafrost degradation.The enhanced streamflow was mainly due to increased meltwater in the flood season.In southern regions covered by both continuous and discontinuous permafrost,approximately 38％of stations exhibited a declining trend in annual streamflow in response to permafrost degradation,with a high proportion(61％)located in mountain regions(elevation ≥ 500 m).The decline is attributed to the enhanced infiltration capacity of thawing frozen layers within discontinuous permafrost regions.Our study provides new insights into the mechanisms behind permafrost degradation-induced streamflow variation and highlights the importance of formulating tailored strategies for sustainable river management in cold regions experiencing climate change.

外文关键词：

permafrost degradationstreamflow variationdeep learning modelclimate changelarge cold basin

作者：

XUE ZeHuan、WANG YiChu、ZHAO Yi、LI DongDeng、BORTHWICK Alistair George Liam

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作者单位：

The Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences,Ministry of Education,College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China

College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China

State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China

State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of All Materials Fluxes in River Ecosystems,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China

School of Engineering,The University of Edinburgh,Edinburgh EH9 3JL,United Kingdom

School of Engineering,Computing and Mathematics,University of Plymouth,Plymouth PL4 8AA,United Kingdom

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出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.1007/s11431-023-2757-2

中国科学:技术科学(英文版)

中国科学院

中国科学:技术科学(英文版)

CSTPCDEI

影响因子：1.056

ISSN：1674-7321

年,卷(期)：2024.67(11)