Objective:To construct a prediction model of hematoma expansion (HE) in cerebral haemorrhage (sICH) based on CT scanning radiological and clinical features,and to validate the model. Methods:Two hundred and forty-four patients with cerebral haemorrhage who met the requirements were selected and divided into 65 cases in the HE group and 179 cases in the non-expansion (NHE) group according to whether the haematoma was enlarged or not. Lasso-Logistic regression analyse was performed on the CT signs and clinical characteristics of the patients in the two groups to construct the joint prediction model of radiological and clinical characteristics,and a Nomogram model was constructed with the selected independent risk factors and validated,furthermore,the predictive results were also validated by an internal study of 85 patients. Results:The time of the first CT examination,history of anticoagulant therapy,hypodensity sign,vortex sign,island sign,satellite sign were the independent risk factors for the prediction of HE,the joint prediction model had an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.774 and a Yoden index of 0.4211,with a sensitivity of 53.85％,a specificity of 88.27％,and an accuracy of 81.15％,the internally validated prediction model had an AUC value of 0.890,a Jordon index of 0.6287,a sensitivity of 89.66％,a speci-ficity of 73.21％,and an accuracy of 81.18％. Conclusion:The joint model of radiological and clinical features is valuable in predicting HE,which can provide scientific basis for the clinical development of effective therapeutic measures.
万方数据
维普
