In order to scientifically measure the influence level of major public health emergencies on China's civil aviation transportation volume and predict the future development trend of China's civil aviation transportation volume,the concepts of influence value and influence degree of major public health emergencies were introduced to quantita-tively analyze the index such as passenger throughput and cargo throughput,etc. of Beijing Capital International Airport,Dalian Zhoushuizi International Airport,and China's civil aviation from 2018 to 2019. The cubic exponen-tial smoothing method was used to calculate the predicted values for 2020 and 2021. The difference between the predicted values and the actual values was set as the influence value,and the ratio of the influence value of the cur-rent month to the influence value of the previous month was defined as the influence degree. The results showed that the influence degree of public health emergencies on civil aviation transportation volume was about 1.0. From 2022 to 2025,civil aviation transportation volume in China will steadily recover. The introduction of the concept and method of influence degree provides new ideas for predicting the civil aviation transportation volume in the context of emergencies.
major public health emergenciescivil aviation transportation volumeinfluence degreecubic exponential smoothing methodforecast
维普
万方数据
