基于"煤电矛盾"问题的煤炭中长期合同辩证研究
Dialectical study on medium-and-long term coal contracts based on the"coal-electricity contradiction"
桂俊卿 1刘平阔 1郑宽 2孙千慧1
作者信息
- 1. 上海电力大学经济与管理学院,上海市浦东新区,201306
- 2. 中金公司研究院,北京市 朝阳区,100022
- 折叠
摘要
煤炭中长期合同是"煤电矛盾"中的功能性问题,虽然目前政府力推签订煤炭中长期合同,但针对煤炭契约仍存在诸多认知不足的问题.分析了煤炭中长期合同的优、缺点,梳理煤电定价模式与煤电交易契约的关系,讨论煤炭契约定价方法与价格波动风险对煤电交易有效性的影响.研究发现,"市场煤、计划电"的定价模式会在一定程度上激化"煤电矛盾",且该模式在短期内无法改变;煤炭中长期合同是现阶段有效的治理工具,但仍存在机会主义行为与成本疏导问题;目前的煤炭中长期合同应辅以合理的弹性定价法,并利用煤炭差价合约降低价格风险.在此基础上,提出了针对性的政策建议.
Abstract
The medium-and-long term coal contract is one of the functional issues of"coal-electricity contradiction",although the government is currently pushing for the signing of medium-and-long term coal contracts,there are still many problems of insufficient cognition for coal contracts.The advantages and disadvantages of medium-and-long term coal contracts were analyzed,the relationship between pricing models and trading contracts of coal-fired power were sorted out,and the impact of coal contract pricing method and the price wave risk on the effectiveness of coal and electricity transaction was discussed.The research shows that the pricing model of"market coal and planned electricity"will intensify the"coal-electricity contradiction",and this model cannot be changed in the short term;medium-and-long term coal contract is an effective governance tool at this stage,but there are still problems of opportunistic behavior and cost diversion;the current medium-and-long term coal contracts should be supplemented by a reasonable flexible pricing method,and use coal price difference contracts to reduce price risk.On the basis,some policy suggestions are put forward accordingly.
关键词
煤电矛盾/煤炭中长期合同/定价方法/价格波动风险Key words
coal-electricity contradiction/medium-and-long term coal contract/pricing method/risk of price wave引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(72103128)
中国国际金融股份有限公司自研课题(202222788)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据