China's economy experienced a rebound and improvement in 2023,successfully achieving its main expected goals with a GDP growth rate of 5.2％.This growth was accompanied by a significant increase in the total energy consumption,driven by various factors including the improving economic situation.Looking forward to 2024,sustained economic growth,particularly in new energy industries,is expected to continue driving up total energy consumption to a range between 5.89-5.98 billion tons of standard coal.Despite a high baseline,the growth rate of energy consumption is projected to slow down,falling within the range of 3.0％to 4.5％.Regarding the energy consumption structure,it is anticipated that the proportion of coal and oil consumption will decrease while the share of natural gas,primary electricity and other energy sources will increase.In terms of fossil energy production.coal production is forecasted to experience a slight increase in 2024,reaching approximately 4.7-4.8 billion tons,with imports expected to remain high,reaching 400-450 million tons.Crude oil production is expected to stabilize at over 200 million tons,with a shortfall of over 500 million tons still reliant on imports.The growth rate of natural gas production is expected to maintain at 6％,with import volume anticipated to grow by around 10％.Concerning electricity consumption,it is projected that China's electricity consumption will grow between 6％and 7％in 2024,with the total electricity consumption in society reaching between 9.77 trillion to 9.87 trillion kilowatt hours.
关键词
能源形势研判/煤炭/原油/天然气/用电量
Key words
energy situation research/coal/crude oil/natural gas/electricity consumption
维普
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