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保供降碳目标下能源转型模式及转型时点分析

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应对气候变化目标要求全球能源系统进行广泛而深刻的转型.由于资源禀赋、能源战略、技术水平等差异,各国能源转型进程呈现出明显的异质性特征.通过对主要国家能源转型特征与减煤路径的分析,归纳了 4种典型模式:能效提高模式、增气减煤模式、煤炭洁净利用模式、新能源替代模式,不同模式在不同时间点上与经济社会发展交互影响形成了国际能源转型的内在驱动机制.采用面板数据模型识别了影响能源转型模式的重要因素,并利用历史趋势分析方法对我国化石能源消费"拐点"与减煤时间节点进行研究.研究表明,当人均GDP达到25 500美元时,发达国家即出现化石能源减少拐点.国家创新指数和城镇化与煤炭消费占比呈负相关,第二产业增加值占比与煤炭消费占比呈正相关.我国预计减煤时间范围在2028-2035年,化石能源消费减少时点在2040年左右.考虑到我国以煤炭为主的能源资源禀赋,我国能源转型目标的实现须依赖于煤炭洁净利用为主的转型路径,大力发展低碳化现代煤基能源体系,改变传统煤炭利用理念与方式,为未来多能耦合的新型能源体系提供重要支撑.
Analysis of energy transition mode and time node under the goals of energy supply guarantee and carbon emission reduction
Climate change goals require a broad and profound transition of the global energy system.Due to the differences in resource endowment,energy strategy and technology level,the processes of energy transition in different countries show an obvious heterogeneity.By analyzing the characteristics of energy transition and the coal reduction pathways in major countries,this study summarizes four typical modes:energy efficiency improvement mode,gas increase and coal reduction mode,clean coal utilization mode,and new energy development mode.Different modes interact with economic and social development at different time nodes to form the internal driving mechanism of international energy transition.The panel data model is employed to identify the important factors affecting the energy transition mode,and the historical trend analysis method is used to study the"turning point"of fossil energy consumption and the time node of coal reduction in China.Research results reveal that when the per capita GDP reaches 25 500 US dollars,the fossil energy reduction turning point will occur in developed countries.The national innovation index and urbanization are negatively correlated with the proportion of coal consumption,while the proportion of secondary industry value-added is positively correlated with the proportion of coal consumption.China is expected to reduce coal consumption in 2028 to 2035,and fossil energy consumption will decrease around 2040.Considering China's coal-based energy resource endowment,the realization of China's energy transition goals must rely on the transition path mainly focused on coal clean utilization,vigorously develop the modern low-carbon coal-based energy system,change the traditional concept and method of coal utilization,which provides an important support for the future new energy system with different energy sources.

energy supply guarantee and carbon emission reductionenergy transitionpanel data modelcoal reduction pathenergy consumption structuremodern coal-based energy system

王兵、陆峰、管欣梦、邓凯磊、张露、姜鑫茹

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中国矿业大学<北京>能源与矿业学院可持续发展与能源政策研究中心,北京市海淀区,100083

保供降碳 能源转型 面板数据模型 减煤路径 能源消费结构 现代煤基能源

中国工程院咨询项目中国工程院咨询项目中国工程院咨询项目

2022-JB-052022-XBZD-102022-XBZD-09

2024

10.19880/j.cnki.ccm.2024.07.002

中国煤炭
煤炭信息研究院

中国煤炭

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.736
ISSN：1006-530X
年,卷(期)：2024.50(7)
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