首页|矿山修复PPP项目风险的模糊决策评价研究

矿山修复PPP项目风险的模糊决策评价研究

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大量废弃矿山不仅影响生态环境和引发次生灾害,而且还存在资源浪费和价值损耗,因此亟需修复治理.目前我国通常采用PPP模式进行矿山修复,因其缺乏有效的风险决策定量评价方法,从而影响投资主体的参与积极性.针对矿山修复PPP项目中存在的风险问题,采用多分类Logistic线性回归模型对所提出的风险假设进行定量分析,在此基础上采用模糊认知图的方法对风险控制力及其影响因素进行动态分析,详细研究了 PPP模式下核心利益者的风险转换机制和收益风险管控机制.结果表明,营商环境是提高PPP项目风险控制力的可靠方法.
Research on fuzzy decision-making evaluation for the risk of mine restoration PPP project
A large number of abandoned mines not only affect the ecological environment and cause secondary disasters,but also lead to resource waste and value loss,so there is an urgent need for rehabilitation and management.However,the frequently-used PPP model in China at present lacks of effective quantitative evaluation methods for risk decision-making,thus affecting the participation enthusiasm of the investment corpus of mine restoration project.In respone to the risks existing in mine restoration PPP projects,a multinomial logistic linear regression model was used to quantitatively analyze the proposed risk hypothesis,and a fuzzy cognitive map method was used to dynamically analyze the risk control ability and its influencing factors,the risk conversion mechanism and return-risk control mechanism of core stakeholders under the PPP model were studied in detail.The results showed that the business environment was a reliable method to improve the risk control ability of PPP projects.

public-private partnership(PPP)projectmine restorationrisk control abilitylogistic linear regressionfuzzy cognitive map(FCM)

李轩、赵方方、石世英、郑元枝、杨健辉

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郑州工商学院商学院,河南省郑州市,451400

河南理工大学土木工程学院,河南省焦作市,454003

河南理工大学国有资产与实验室管理处,河南省焦作市,454003

PPP项目 矿山修复 风险控制力 Logistic线性回归 模糊认知图

国家自然科学基金项目河南省高校人文社会科学研究一般项目

411723172025-ZDJH-077

2024

中国煤炭
煤炭信息研究院

中国煤炭

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.736
ISSN:1006-530X
年,卷(期):2024.50(7)
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