矿山修复PPP项目风险的模糊决策评价研究
Research on fuzzy decision-making evaluation for the risk of mine restoration PPP project
李轩 1赵方方 2石世英 2郑元枝 3杨健辉2
作者信息
- 1. 郑州工商学院商学院,河南省郑州市,451400
- 2. 河南理工大学土木工程学院,河南省焦作市,454003
- 3. 河南理工大学国有资产与实验室管理处,河南省焦作市,454003
- 折叠
摘要
大量废弃矿山不仅影响生态环境和引发次生灾害,而且还存在资源浪费和价值损耗,因此亟需修复治理.目前我国通常采用PPP模式进行矿山修复,因其缺乏有效的风险决策定量评价方法,从而影响投资主体的参与积极性.针对矿山修复PPP项目中存在的风险问题,采用多分类Logistic线性回归模型对所提出的风险假设进行定量分析,在此基础上采用模糊认知图的方法对风险控制力及其影响因素进行动态分析,详细研究了 PPP模式下核心利益者的风险转换机制和收益风险管控机制.结果表明,营商环境是提高PPP项目风险控制力的可靠方法.
Abstract
A large number of abandoned mines not only affect the ecological environment and cause secondary disasters,but also lead to resource waste and value loss,so there is an urgent need for rehabilitation and management.However,the frequently-used PPP model in China at present lacks of effective quantitative evaluation methods for risk decision-making,thus affecting the participation enthusiasm of the investment corpus of mine restoration project.In respone to the risks existing in mine restoration PPP projects,a multinomial logistic linear regression model was used to quantitatively analyze the proposed risk hypothesis,and a fuzzy cognitive map method was used to dynamically analyze the risk control ability and its influencing factors,the risk conversion mechanism and return-risk control mechanism of core stakeholders under the PPP model were studied in detail.The results showed that the business environment was a reliable method to improve the risk control ability of PPP projects.
关键词
PPP项目/矿山修复/风险控制力/Logistic线性回归/模糊认知图Key words
public-private partnership(PPP)project/mine restoration/risk control ability/logistic linear regression/fuzzy cognitive map(FCM)引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41172317)
河南省高校人文社会科学研究一般项目(2025-ZDJH-077)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据