The Reward of Bumper Harvests:Fiscal Incentives and Grain Production Growth
The regular grain-producing county reward policy is an important initiative by the central government to motivate local governments to be more proactive in grain production and to alleviate the financial difficulties of the grain-producing counties.However,the effectiveness of grain production and its mechanism of action are not yet clear.Based on the cluster analysis method,this paper uses the notched point formed by the reward entry conditions to estimate the impact of the policy implementation on grain production.From 2005 to 2020,the implementation of this policy produces an explicit bunching effect,i.e.,the distribution of the number of counties at the discontinuity of 200,000 tons exhibits a left-hand side missing and right-hand side bunching.The policy leads to an average increase of 5.0％in county grain yield in the manipulation interval,and improves the multiple-crop index and the level of agricultural mechanization.Counties with large gaps of fiscal revenue and expenditure,low levels of industrial structure optimization,as well as poor counties are more strongly motivated by fiscal incentives,and show higher grain increase effects.Furthermore,the policy has also significantly increased the county's agricultural total factor productivity and agricultural labor productivity.The estimated minimum benefit value of the policy implementation is much greater than the maximum expected cost value,which has a high economic benefit.In conclusion,this paper helps to understand the degree of response of county-level governments to fiscal transfer payments for grain production,the range of action of fiscal incentives,and the contribution of fiscal transfer payments to food security.It provides micro-level empirical evidence for the central government to further optimize and innovate the fiscal transfer system,and to give full play to the critical function of fiscal incentives for grain security.
The Regular Grain-Producing County Reward PolicyFiscal IncentivesFiscal TransfersGrain SecurityBunching Analysis
万方数据
维普
