The Buffering Effect of Agriculture on Non-agricultural Unemployment Under COVID-19:Rethinking the Labor Reservoir Function of Agriculture
This paper uses the COVID-19 epidemic as an external shock to the labor market,and uses the Difference-in-Differences model to analyze the employment choices of rural laborers facing non-agricultural unemployment shock from the perspective of non-agricultural employment,unemployment,and farming.We find that the probability of non-agricultural employment in rural laborers in severely affected areas significantly decreases after the epidemic,but the probability of farming does not change significantly.This indicates that migrant workers do not turn to agriculture after losing their non-agricultural employment under the shock,but choose to be unemployed.Their employment choices show the characteristic of normalization of non-agricultural employment.Under the shock,it is also difficult to for the rural laborers to increase the agricultural income,and there is significant rigid expenditure and housing loan pressure,which strengthens the demand for rural laborers to maintain and obtain non-agricultural employment.This paper has the following implications.Under the current agricultural production conditions and household income structure in China,the labor reservoir function of agriculture in terms of emergency and mutual aid is weakened,making it difficult to fully absorb the rural laborers that have encountered non-agricultural unemployment to alleviate the decline in non-agricultural employment under external shocks.The limited agricultural income also makes it difficult for rural households to resist risks when facing external shocks.More attention needs to be paid to the issue of non-agricultural unemployment among migrant workers.
万方数据
维普
