Spillover Effect of Population Control Policies in Big Cities on Secondary Industry in Adjacent Districts and Counties:Evidence from the Household Registration System Reform in 2014
Taking the reform of household registration system in 2014 as a policy shock,this paper studies the influence of population control policies in big cities on the development of the secondary industry in adjacent districts and counties.The results of benchmark regression show that the population control policies in big cities have spillover effects,which promote the growth of the added value and its proportion of the secondary industry and the number of employees in the secondary industry in adjacent districts and counties.Mechanism analysis shows that the population control policies in big cities increase the probability and quantity of listed companies in big cities investing in adjacent districts and counties,and at the same time increase the proportion of migrants and employees in the secondary industry through labor mobility,thus promoting the development of the secondary industry in adjacent districts and counties.The analysis of moderating effect shows that the lower the minimum wage standard and industrial land price in adjacent districts and counties are,the greater the spillover effects of the implementation of population control policies in large cities on the development of the secondary industry are.The siphon effect brought by the opening of high-speed rail weakens the spillover effects of population control policies in big cities on adjacent districts and counties.In adjacent districts and counties with similar manufacturing structure to big cities,the spillover effects of population control policies in big cities are greater.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the spillover effects of labor-intensive manufacturing industry by population control policies in big cities are the most significant.The investment of listed companies in big cities in neighboring counties is"gradient",and the investment mainly comes from listed companies in non-central urban areas of big cities.To sum up,the population control policies in big cities have spillover effects on the development of the secondary industry in neighboring counties by promoting enterprises'investment in different places and labor mobility.The conclusion of this paper provides decision-making references for constructing modem metropolitan areas and promoting high-quality integrated development of the metropolitan areas.
Adjacent Districts and CountiesSpillover EffectsReform of Household Registration SystemPopulation Control PoliciesMetropolitan Area Integration
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