高等教育扩招政策实施如何影响居民生育数量:效应及机理
How Does the Policy Implementation of Expanding Enrollment in Higher Education Affect the Fertility Rates of Residents?Effects and Mechanisms
刘一伟 1郭秋月 2孙中伟3
作者信息
- 1. 中央财经大学政府管理学院
- 2. 华北水利水电大学公共管理学院
- 3. 华南师范大学政治与公共管理学院
- 折叠
摘要
人口是中国式现代化的基础性、全局性与战略性要素,但中国面临低生育率困境.本文尝试从高等教育的视角为中国低生育率困境提供一个可能的解释.本文基于中国综合社会调查数据,将1999年高等教育扩招政策作为准自然实验,运用双重差分法检验高等教育扩招政策实施对中国居民生育数量的影响.研究表明:高等教育扩招政策实施对居民生育数量存在显著的负向影响,且这种负向影响在城镇居民和体制外工作的居民中更显著.机制分析显示,高等教育扩招政策实施通过提高受教育水平的直接途径,以及改变养儿防老预期、延长工作时间、推迟结婚年龄、提高择偶标准和增强性别平等意识等间接途径,对居民生育数量产生负向影响.本文研究结论能为中国人口高质量发展和生育政策调整提供一定启示.
Abstract
Population is a foundational,comprehensive,and strategic factor in China's modernization development.However,China's population development is characterized by a trend of"low fertility".This paper attempts to provide a potential explanation for China's low fertility rate dilemma from the perspective of higher education.Based on the data of the China General Social Survey(CGSS),and using the 1999"Higher Education Expansion"policy as a quasi-natural experiment,this study employs the Difference-in-Differences(DID)method to examine the impact of the policy of expanding the enrollment of higher education on the fertility rates of Chinese residents.The analysis results indicate that higher education expansion has a significant negative impact on the fertility counts of residents,with this negative effect being more pronounced among residents with urban household registration and those engaged in"non-state sector"employment.Mechanism analysis reveals that this policy suppresses residents'fertility counts by directly raising educational levels,and indirectly by altering expectations of old-age support from children,extending working hours,delaying marriage age,increasing mate selection standards,and enhancing gender equality awareness.The findings of this study offer policy implications for the high-quality development of China's population and the adjustment of fertility policies.
关键词
高等教育扩招/生育数量/人口高质量发展/低生育率Key words
Higher Education Expansion/Fertility Rates/High-quality Population Development/Low Fertility Rates引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据