Runoff Simulation of Xinxing River Basin Based on SWAT Model
Distributed hydrological model is an effective tool to study the regulation of water resources evolvement in the changing environ-ments. Taking Xinxing River Basin as the study area, the distributed hydrological model SWAT was built based on GIS platform by integrating the watershed underlying surface information and weather data. Parameter sensitivity analysis and model calibration were done by using histor-ical runoff data from 1990 to 2003 of Yaogu hydrological station in order to validate the applicability of the model in this basin. On the basis of the calibrated model, the effects of climate change on the runoff was analyzed by using the incremental scenario method. The results show that the relative errors of total runoff are within ±10% and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients are above 0.90 in both calibration and validation pe-riods, the overall simulation accuracy of SWAT model is pretty good;The changes of precipitation and air temperature have different effects on runoff of the basin, and the response of runoff to precipitation change is more sensitive than that of air temperature. Through runoff simula-tion, SWAT model can provide an effective reference for water resources planning and management of the Xinxing River Basin in the changing environments.
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