The Runoff Variation of the Zengjiang River in Recent 55 Years and Quantitative Evaluations of the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities
Based on the monthly runoff during 1960-2015,we have studied the characteristics and tendencies of the Zengjiang River and its response to the climate change and human activities.It shows that:over the past 56 years,the runoff of Zengjiang river has a slightly increasing tendency at a rate of 0.6 mm/lO a,and its volume dropped to the lowest in the 60s and reached the peak in the 2000s.The annual runoff of the river obviously decreased during 1960-1972,but shifted to increase during 1972-1984,and then turned to the declining trend again during 1960-1972.However,it stayed at its normal level till now.Runoff concentrates in the flood season by 80％,and presents obvious asymmetry bimodal type in several decades with a peak in June and a sub-peak in August.Runoff is affected by climate change and human activities.Runoff increases when climate is warmer and when precipitation increases,potential evapotranspiration decreases and LUCC is narrowed.The sensitivity of the runoff to the absolute value of various factors:Tmin＞Tmax＞ Precipitation ＞ Relative Humidity ＞ Sunshine Duration ＞LUCC ＞ Wind Speed.Climate change and human activities contribute to the runoff by 51.1％ and 48.9％ respectively.After 1980s,the influence of human activities on runoff increased drastically.But in the early 21st century,the influence of human activities reduced.Therefore,the contribution of human activities to the runoff change cannot be ignored.
Zengjiang River Basinrunoff variationclimate changehuman activitiesquantitative evaluation
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
