目的 揭示中国女性肺癌发病率的空间异质性和空间聚集性,定量分析关键环境因素与肺癌发病率的关联性,为肺癌防控提供科学参考.方法 通过《2017-2019中国肿瘤登记年报》收集中国女性肺癌发病率有关资料,从公共数据库中获取同时期NO2浓度、城镇化率、气温和地形高程共4个环境因素的数据.采用空间自相关分析揭示女性发病率的空间异质性,采用普通最小二乘法(Ordinary Least Squares,OLS)对环境影响因素进行多重共线性检验,运用地理加权回归(Geographically Weighted Regres-sion,GWR)模型定量分析其与环境因素的关联性,并与OLS模型比较拟合效果.结果 中国女性肺癌发病率呈东北部高、西南部低的空间分布格局.全局莫兰指数为0.60(P＜0.001,Z=5.41),说明女性肺癌发病率呈空间聚集性分布.GWR模型结果显示,4个环境因素在不同地区对女性肺癌发病率的影响不同.GWR模型的AICc=80.09,R2=0.37,Adjusted R2=0.26,其拟合效果比OLS模型好.结论 中国女性肺癌高发区域主要位于城市化、工业化程度高的地区,环境因素对女性肺癌发病率的影响存在空间差异.
Spatial distribution characteristics of lung cancer incidence in Chinese females
Objective This study aimed to reveal the spatial heterogeneity and spatial aggregation of lung cancer incidence in Chinese females,to quantitatively analyse the correlation between key environmental factors and the incidence of lung cancer,and to provide scientific reference for the prevention and control of lung cancer.Methods Information on the incidence rate of lung cancer in Chinese females was collected through the 2017-2019 Annual Report of China Tumour Registry,data on a total of four environmental factors,namely NO2 concen-tration,urbanisation rate,air temperature and topographic elevation,were obtained from public databases for the same period.Spatial heterogeneity of female incidence rates was revealed using spatial autocorrelation analysis,the ordinary least squares(OLS)method was used to test for multicollinearity of environmental influences,and a geo-graphically weighted regression(GWR)model was used to quantitatively analyse the association with environmen-tal factors and compare the fitting effect with the OLS model.Result The incidence rate of female lung cancer in China showed a spatial distribution pattern of high in the northeast and low in the southwest.The global Moran in-dex was 0.60(P＜0.001,Z=5.41),indicating a spatially aggregated distribution of female lung cancer inci-dence.The results of the GWR model showed that the four environmental factors had different impacts on the inci-dence rate of female lung cancer in different regions.The AICc of the GWR model=80.09,R2=0.37,Adjusted R2=0.26,and its fitting effect was better than the OLS model.Conclusion The high-incidence areas of female lung cancer in China were mainly located in areas with high urbanisation and industrialisation,and there were spa-tial differences in the influence of environmental factors on the incidence of female lung cancer.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
