Prediction of income and expenditure of basic medical insurance fund for urban and rural residents in Baoding City based on GM(1,1)Model
Objective To predict the operation status of the basic medical insurance fund for urban and rural residents in Baoding City from 2023 to 2027,to analyze the problems in the operation,and to provide refer-ence and suggestions for the safe operation and sustainable development of the fund.Methods Based on the in-come and expenditure data of the basic medical insurance fund for urban and rural residents in Baoding City from 2015 to 2022,the grey prediction model GM(1,1)was used to infer the development trend of the fund from 2023 to 2027.Results From 2023 to 2027,the supporting capacity of the urban and rural medical insurance fund in Baoding City would continue to improve,the fund's income and expenditure would be sustainable,and the fund balance would continue to increase.Conclusion The basic medical insurance fund for urban and rural residents in Baoding City continues to operate well,but it is necessary to be vigilant about the problems of excessive sur-plus,insufficient utilization rate,and low benefit level of the basic medical insurance fund,in order to ensure the sustainable development of the fund.
Baoding cityBasic medical insurance for both urban and rural residentsGM(1,1)modelMedical insurance fundFund supervisionBenefits protectionRisk assessment and early warning mechanism
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