首页|当前我国电力消费新趋势新特点研究——以浙江省为例

当前我国电力消费新趋势新特点研究——以浙江省为例

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近年来,我国电力消费增速明显快于经济增速,电力消费弹性系数居高不下,用电量增长与经济增长之间的规律出现了新变化.从对全国和浙江省形势分析看,三种推动电力增长的驱动因素值得关注,即工业升级进程中电气化、智能化发展推动单位产出能耗降低但电耗增加;5G、数据中心、电动汽车等新产业新业态用电高速增长;生活条件改善背景下空调、采暖等居民用电量大幅增加,拉动电力消费快速增长.此外,极端天气对电力消费的影响程度也越来越大.建议在用电力消费弹性系数预测电力消费等工作时,加强对上述几类电力需求的细化分析,加大电力供应结构和布局的调整,强化电力兜底保障能力建设,引导用户积极参与电力负荷调节,保障电力平稳供应.
Research on the New Trends and Characteristics of China's Electricity Consumption in Recent Years——Taking Zhejiang Province as an Example
In recent years,the growth rate of China's electricity consumption has been significantly higher than the economic growth rate.The elasticity coefficient of electricity consumption remains high,and new changes have emerged in the relationship between electricity consumption growth and economic growth.By analyzing the situation in Zhejiang Province,three driving factors that promote electricity growth deserve attention.Firstly,industrial upgrading through electrification and intelligent development leads to a reduction in energy consumption per unit output but an increase in electricity consumption.Secondly,electricity consumption in emerging industries and new formats such as 5G,data centers,and electric vehicles has grown rapidly.Thirdly,under the background of improved living conditions,electricity consumption has increased substantially due to the rise in residents'electricity consumption for air conditioning and heating.Furthermore,extreme weather events increasingly impact electricity consumption.It is suggested that when forecasting the power demand using"elasticity coefficient",there is a need to strengthen detailed analysis of these power demand types.Meanwhile it is needed to adjust power supply structure and layout,in addition to enhance power guarantee capacity,and guide power users to actively participate in load regulation work to ensure stable power supply.

Electricity ConsumptionElasticity CoefficientEmerging IndustriesNew Trends

高虎、王峥、田磊

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中国宏观经济研究院能源研究所,北京 100038

国家电网有限公司华东分部,上海 200120

电力消费 弹性系数 新兴产业 新趋势

2023

中国能源
国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所

中国能源

CSTPCDCHSSCD
影响因子:1.059
ISSN:1003-2355
年,卷(期):2023.45(10)
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