首页|"十四五"云南电力短缺的影响、原因及对策

"十四五"云南电力短缺的影响、原因及对策

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云南是全国重要清洁电力生产基地和最大的清洁电力外送基地.在承接东部产业转移过程中,云南以"电价洼地"和"清洁水电"优势引入大量电解铝,造成用电量急剧攀升,电力供需形势迅速转紧,由弃水转向常态化缺电,连续三年限电限产.研究发现,云南缺电"诱因"是干旱少雨、水电发电量下降的偶然因素,但深层次原因在于电力供需的结构性矛盾.建议统筹施策,短期内加快省内电源建设、调整高耗能产业发展节奏、提升煤炭和煤电保障能力、加强与周边省份电力互济互保;长期看从国家层面重新论证怒江水电开发的必要性,探索以高比例可再生能源为主体的新型电力系统支撑制造业稳定用电需求的应对之道.
Impacts,Causes and Suggestions of Electricity Shortage in Yunnan Province During the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan Period
Yunnan is an important clean power production base and the country's largest power supply province in China.In the process of industrial transfer from eastern to western,Yunnan has introduced a large amount of electrolytic aluminum capacity due to its advantages of low electricity price and green hydropower.As a result,the electricity consumption has risen sharply,and therefore the power supply and demand situation has rapidly tightened,shifting from oversupply to normalized power shortage,which has further caused great power limitation for industrial users in the past three years.It was found that the"trigger"of power shortage in Yunnan was the accidental factors of drought and lack of rainfall and the decline of hydropower generation,but the fundamental reasons lay in the structural contradiction between power supply and demand.It was recommended that Yunnan accelerate the constructions of power plants,adjust the process of high-electricity industries development,improve the capacity of coal and coal-fired power,and strengthen mutual assistance with neighboring provinces.The new hydropower project of major rivers should be re-demonstrated.It was expected that Yunnan could find out a pathway that the new power systems with a high proportion of renewable energy satisfied the stable electricity demand of the manufacturing industries.

YunnanElectricity SupplyPower ShortageIndustrial Transfer

杨晶

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中国宏观经济研究院能源研究所,北京 100038

云南 电力保供 限电限产 产业转移

2023

中国能源
国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所

中国能源

CSTPCDCHSSCD
影响因子:1.059
ISSN:1003-2355
年,卷(期):2023.45(11)
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