中国能源2024,Vol.46Issue(1) :30-42.

全球石油消费超疫情前水平 我国成品油市场格局加速演变——2023年国内外石油市场发展形势及2024年展望

Global Oil Consumption Exceeds Pre Pandemic Levels,and the Pattern of China's Oil Market is Accelerating Its Evolution——The Situation and Outlook of Domestic and Global Oil Markets in 2023

李然 田磊 石洪宇 付晓晴
中国能源2024,Vol.46Issue(1) :30-42.

全球石油消费超疫情前水平 我国成品油市场格局加速演变——2023年国内外石油市场发展形势及2024年展望

Global Oil Consumption Exceeds Pre Pandemic Levels,and the Pattern of China's Oil Market is Accelerating Its Evolution——The Situation and Outlook of Domestic and Global Oil Markets in 2023

李然 1田磊 2石洪宇 1付晓晴1
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作者信息

  • 1. 中国石油集团经济技术研究院,北京 100724
  • 2. 中国宏观经济研究院能源研究所,北京 100038
  • 折叠

摘要

2023年,全球石油需求快速恢复,地缘溢价有所消退及美联储持续加息带来国际油价回落.中国石油需求创历史新高,成品油需求恢复接近2019年的水平;原油供应由国内国际两个市场共同保障.从中长期看,交通电动化已对油品需求形成不可逆转的冲击,需求格局加速被迭代,达峰趋势不变,尤其汽油峰值被拉近至2024年,柴油再次回归下降区间,而煤油和化工用油是未来石油消费的增长点,国内成品油市场需求格局加速演变.此外,行业监管措施进一步落实,市场整治力度持续发力,行业格局将不断升级.

Abstract

In 2023,global oil demand has rapidly recovered,geopolitical premiums have subsided,and the sustained interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have led to a decline in international oil prices.China's oil demand has reached a historic high,and the demand for refined oil products has recovered to levels close to 2019;the supply of crude oil is jointly guaranteed by both domestic and international markets.In the medium and long term,the electrification of transportation has had an irreversible impact on the demand for oil products.The demand pattern is iterated at an accelerated pace,and the peak trend remains unchanged.Especially,the peak of gasoline has been brought closer to 2024,and diesel has once again returned to the declining range.Kerosene and chemical oil are the growth points of future oil consumption.In addition,industry regulatory measures have been further implemented,market regulation efforts continue to be strengthened,and the industry landscape will continue to upgrade.

关键词

石油/恢复/需求峰值/行业发展

Key words

Oil/Restore/Peak Demand/Industry Development

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出版年

2024
中国能源
国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所

中国能源

CSTPCDCHSSCD
影响因子:1.059
ISSN:1003-2355
参考文献量4
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