Key Influencing Factors in National Oil Companies'Energy Transition and Implications for China-Latin American Energy Cooperation:A System Dynamics Analysis from a Latin American Perspective
This paper takes Latin American NOCs as an example,outlining theirinitiatives in energy transition and summarizing two major transformation models:"synergistic development of core industries"and"decarbonization of primary business lines."It further analyzes the influencing factors from the perspectives of drivers and barriers,employing system dynamics modeling and simulation to project the transformation scenarios under three different circumstances for Latin American NOCs.Concurrently,it explores the implications for China-Latin America energy cooperation within the context of the energy transition of these NOCs.The results show that,taking the scenario of a 90％reduction in emissions by 2050 and an international oil price of $40 per barrel as an example,the scale of oil business for Latin American national oil companies is expected to peak around 2030.Against the backdrop of China-Latin America new energy cooperation being influenced by U.S.industrial policies,adjustments of Latin America's position within the U.S.energy structure,and the widespread pursuit among Latin American nations of energy transformation,resistance to hegemony,and quests for change,energy transition collaboration between China-Latin America oil and gas companies has created an opportunity and imbued new meaning into China-Latin America energy cooperation.
National Oil CompaniesEnergy TransitionInfluencing FactorsSystem Dynamics AnalysisChina-Latin America Energy Cooperation
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
