能效提升驱动下的园区能源和碳排放分析——以江苏金坛经济开发区为例
许明超 1朱继龙 2李笑飞1
作者信息
- 1. 中节能生态产品发展研究中心有限公司,北京 100082
- 2. 茵态(北京)规划管理有限公司,北京1026271
- 折叠
摘要
本文采用情景分析法探讨了能效提升驱动下的园区能源消费和碳排放情况,并以江苏金坛经济开发区(以下简称"金坛经开区")为研究对象,分析了基准情景和高能效情景下能源消费及碳排放的结果.研究表明,在基准情景和高能效情景下,金坛经开区碳排放的主要部门仍为以新能源装备制造和能源供应为主的工业部门(长期占全区碳排放量的80％以上),两种情景下的碳达峰值分别约为430万吨和380万吨,均可完成2030年前碳达峰目标.高能效情景下二氧化碳排放量显著降低,实现碳中和的难度也远低于基准能效情景.因此,工业部门能效提升和能源结构的优化,对金坛经开区实现"双碳"目标具有关键意义.
Abstract
The article adopts scenario analysis to explore the energy consumption and carbon emissions of industrial parks driven by energy efficiency improvement.It takes Jiangsu Jintan Economic Development Zone(hereinafter referred to as"Jintan EDZ")as the research object to analyze the results of energy consumption and carbon emissions under the baseline scenario and high energy efficiency scenario.The research has shown that under both scenarios,the major carbon emitter in Jintan EDZ is still the industrial sector with focus of new-energy equipment manufactures and energy supply(accounting for more than 80％of Jintan EDZ's carbon emissions in the long term).The peak carbon emissions under the two scenarios are about 4.3 million tons CO2 and 3.8 million tons CO2 respectively,both of which can achieve the carbon peak target by 2030.Under the high energy efficiency scenario,CO2 emissions are significantly reduced,and the difficulty of achieving carbon neutrality is much lower than the baseline scenario.Therefore,the improvement of energy efficiency and optimization of energy structure in the industrial sector are of crucial significance for Jintan EDZ to achieve its"dual carbon"goals.
关键词
园区能效提升/情景分析/江苏金坛经济开发区/碳排放Key words
Energy Efficiency Improvement of Industrial Park/Scenario Analysis/Jintan Economicdevelopment Zone of Jiangsu/Carbon Emission引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据