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基于演化博弈分析的可持续航空燃油与碳市场协同减排研究

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面对全球气候变化的严峻挑战,航空业作为温室气体排放的重要领域,其减排行动对于实现全球气候目标至关重要。可持续航空燃油(SAF)作为一种具有显著减排潜力的替代能源,其推广与应用成为航空业减排的关键。然而,SAF的广泛应用需要政府和航空公司的共同努力与协作。本文旨在通过博弈论的视角,构建政府与航空公司的双方演化博弈模型,分析SAF与碳市场协同减排机理。研究结果表明,合理的碳市场机制能够使航空公司通过加注SAF在实现减排的同时在碳市场中获益,进而激励SAF的规模化应用;降低SAF的采购价格以及对航空公司加注SAF提供政策激励措施,同样可以促进SAF的应用,实现减排目标。基于此,本文建议政府在初期通过设置较低的减排目标和提供研发支持,促进SAF技术的成熟和市场接受度。随着市场的发展,逐步提高碳配额要求和碳价,以激励航空公司增加SAF的使用比例,实现长期减排目标。本文的研究在推动SAF和碳市场协同减排中的决策中,为政府部门和航空公司提供了理论依据和实践指导,有助于促进航空业的绿色转型和可持续发展。
Faced with the severe challenge of global climate change,the aviation industry,an important sector of greenhouse gas emissions,plays a crucial role in achieving global climate goals through its emission reduction actions.Sustainable aviation fuel(SAF),an alternative energy source with significant emission reduction potential,has become a key factor in reducing emissions in the aviation industry through its promotion and application.However,the widespread application of SAF requires joint efforts and collaboration between the government and airlines.This article aims to construct an evolutionary game model between the government and airlines from the game theory perspective,and analyze the collaborative emission reduction mechanism between SAF and carbon markets.The research results indicate that the establishment of a reasonable carbon market mechanism by government departments can enable airlines to benefit from carbon market emissions reduction by adding SAF,incurring emission costs,and incentivizing airlines to apply SAF.Reducing the cost of adding SAF to airlines and providing policy incentives for airlines to add SAF can also promote the application of SAF and achieve emission reduction goals.Based on this,this article suggests that the government should set lower emission reduction targets and provide research and development support in the early stages to promote the maturity and market acceptance of SAF technology.With the development of the market,carbon quota requirements and carbon prices are gradually increasing to incentivize airlines to increase the proportion of SAF usage and achieve long-term emission reduction goals.This study provides the theoretical basis and practical guidance for government departments and airlines in promoting the coordinated emission reduction of SAF and carbon markets,which helps to promote the green transformation and sustainable development of the aviation industry.

Sustainable Aviation FuelCarbon MarketCollaborative Emission ReductionMechanism AnalysisEvolutionary Game Theory

田利军、刘鑫

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中国民航大学中国民航环境与可持续发展研究院,天津 300300

中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津 300300

可持续航空燃油 碳市场 协同减排 机理分析 演化博弈

国家社科基金一般项目

22BJY020

2024

中国能源
国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所

中国能源

CSTPCDCHSSCD
影响因子:1.059
ISSN:1003-2355
年,卷(期):2024.46(7)