摘要
为更精细评价温度对作物的影响,以河北省夏玉米生育期气象条件为例,基于温度适宜度模型,比较分析逐小时整点时刻的温度和逐日平均温度的夏玉米温度适宜度.结果表明:2015-2020年肥乡、栾城和涿州3个国家级农业气象观测站6个年度基于小时温度的日温度适宜度与基于日温度的日温度适宜度两者逐日差值≥0.6、≥0.5、≥0.4、≥0.3、≥0.2、≥0.1 和≥0.01 的占比依次为 0.05％、0.6％、2.1％、6.9％、23.8％、62.4％和96.3％,3个站中两者差值的变异系数＞100％、10％～100％、＜10％的占比依次为0.2％、50.0％和49.8％,50.2％差值样本存在中等或较大程度的差异.基于小时温度的日温度适宜度与基于日温度的日温度适宜度差值与温度日较差呈正相关,若日较差小于12.5℃,则两者差值有80.1％的样本低于0.2;若日较差小于8.4℃,则两者差值样本中有34.6％在0.1以内.连续高温日下,基于小时温度的日温度适宜度和基于日温度的日温度适宜度均能反映高温的影响,检验结果一致性为91.7％;连续低温日下,基于小时温度的日温度适宜度能反映低温的影响,而基于日温度的日温度适宜度则不能,两者一致性仅30.0％.
Abstract
In order to evaluate the impact of temperature on crops more precisely,taking summer maize growth periods in different years in Hebei province as an example,the temperature suitability-degree of summer maize based on two time scales followed as the stroke of every hour of one single day and daily average temperature has been compared and analyzed by temperature suitability model.The results show that the probability of the difference values between 24h average daily temperature suitability-degree and daily temperature suitability-degree of the three national agricultural meteorological observation stations followed as Feixiang,Luancheng,and Zhuozhou for six years from 2015 to 2020,≥0.6,≥0.5,≥0.4,≥0.3,≥0.2,≥0.1 and ≥0.01 were 0.05％,0.6％,2.1％,6.9％,23.8％,62.4％and 96.3％respectively,the proportions of coefficients of variation＞100％,10％-100％,and＜10％were 0.2％,50.0％,and 49.8％,respectively.There were moderate or above differences in 50.2％of the difference samples.The difference values between the 24h average daily temperature suitability-degree and daily temperature suitability-degree was quadratic with respect to the daily temperature range of the station on same day.If the daily temperature range was less than 12.5℃,80.1％of the samples with a difference between the two would be within 0.2.If the daily temperature range was less than 8.4℃,34.6％of the samples with a difference between the two would be within 0.1.In the case of continuous high temperature weather,the trend was consistent,and both timescales of temperature suitability-degree could reflect the effects of high temperature,with a 91.7％agreement of the test results.On consecutive days of low temperature,the 24h daily average temperature suitability-degree more accurately reflect the effect of low temperature,but the daily temperature suitability-degree does not respond to low temperature,the consistency between the two is only 30.0％.
基金项目
中国气象局政策法规建设项目(B-2021-005)
维普
万方数据