首页|基于高分辨格点数据东北水稻延迟型冷害风险评估及保险费率厘定

基于高分辨格点数据东北水稻延迟型冷害风险评估及保险费率厘定

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利用5kmx5km空间分辨率3h时间分辨率的气象格点数据集，研究东北地区水稻延迟型冷害风险及其保险费率的厘定。基于东北地区1981-2010年5-9月平均温度的格点数据集和99个气象站的站点观测数据，以相关系数和均方根误差评价格点气象数据在东北地区的可用性。以日平均气温稳定通过10℃和18℃的日数作为获取水稻气候安全种植区域的指标，在水稻气候安全种植范围内，分析东北地区水稻延迟型冷害的空间分布特征，确定保险费率。结果表明，东北地区1981-2010年5-9月平均温度气象站点观测数据与格点数据的相关系数高，均方根误差小，表明格点数据在东北地区可用。水稻气候安全种植区域占东北的56。5％，主要分布在辽宁省、吉林省中西部、黑龙江省西南部和东北部、蒙东西部及东部与辽宁和吉林省接壤的区域。在水稻气候安全种植区内，水稻延迟型冷害发生频率呈南低北高，中间低东西高的分布特征，且重度延迟型冷害发生频率最高。低温冷害风险指数空间分布与之相似，内蒙古西部和东北部、黑龙江北部和吉林西部局部地区是风险指数的高值区。东北地区1981-2010年水稻延迟型冷害的天气指数保险费率在空间分布上与东北地区低温冷害风险指数的空间分布相似，呈南部低，北部高，中间低，东西高的特征，整个区域的保险费率在0。010～0。094，可为保险公司制定具体费率提供参考。
Risk Assessment of Delayed Chilling Injury of Rice and the Determination of Insurance Premium Rate in Northeast China Based on High-resolution Meteorological Grid Data
The 5km X 5km meteorological dataset from 1981 to 2010 is used in this study to analyze the delayed chilling injury risk of rice in Northeast China and the pure premium ratemaking thereof.The availability of the grid dataset is evaluated by calculating the correlation coefficients and root mean square errors(RMSE)between the grid database of average temperature from May to September from 1981 to 2010 in Northeast China and the data observed from 99 meteorological stations.The number of days with daily average temperature stably higher than 10℃ and 18℃ is taken as an indicator for defining climatologically safe rice-growing areas,within which the temporal and spatial change characteristics of chilling injury of rice in Northeast China are analyzed to determine the pure premium rate thereof.The results show a strong correlation coefficient and low RMSEs between the grid data and the observed May to September mean temperatures in Northeast China from 1981 to 2010,indicating that grid data is available in Northeast China.The climatologically safe rice-growing areas,which occupied 56.5％of Northeast China,are mainly distributed in Liaoning,central and western Jilin,southwestern and northeastern Heilongjiang,the western region in eastern Inner Mongolia and the eastern regions bordering Liaoning and Jilin.In climatologically safe rice growing areas,the frequency of delayed chilling injury in rice is typically characterized by a distribution pattern of low in the south and higher in the north,and low in the middle and elevated in the east and west.Moreover,severe delayed chilling injuries were the most frequent.The spatial distribution of the risk index of delayed chilling injury is similar to the distribution of the frequency,with high value areas in the western and northeastern parts of Inner Mongolia,northern Heilongjiang,and western Jilin.The spatial distribution of the pure premium rate of delayed chilling injury for rice in Northeast China from 1981 to 2010 is similar to its risk index distribution,i.e.,low in the south,high in the north,low in the center,and high in the east and west.The pure premium rate is between 0.010 and 0.094,which can be regarded as a reference for insurance companies in making specific rates.

Delayed chilling injuryAgrometeorological hazardsPure premium rateRoot mean square errorClimatologically safe rice-growing areas

邱美娟、刘布春、刘园、裴忠有、李志彬、宋晓慧

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天津农学院农学与资源环境学院,天津 300384

中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京 100081

延迟型低温冷害 农业气象灾害 保险费率 均方根误差 水稻气候安全种植区

国家重点研发计划项目国家重点研发计划项目中国农业科学院科技创新工程

2023YFD15008052017YFC1502800CAAS-ASTIP-2014-IEDA

2024

10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2024.02.009

中国农业气象
中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所

中国农业气象

CSTPCD
影响因子：1.679
ISSN：1000-6362
年,卷(期)：2024.45(2)
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