CMIP6 Models Optimization in Simulating Future Temperature Change over Guizhou Province
Based on the daily average temperature,daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature from the 18 global climate models that participated in the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)and their precedent phase project(CMIP5),and the 84 observational stations during 1986-2005,the capabilities of CMIP6 on simulating the temperature over Guizhou by Portrait and Taylor chat were evaluated.The best simulation results were selected to project the characteristics of temperature in Guizhou under three scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)from 2023 to 2100.The results showed that the CMIP6-MME(multi-model ensemble)generally had better performance in simulating the indices including the numbers of forest days(FD),the length of the growing season(GSL),the numbers of summer days(SU),the lowest value of the minimum temperature(TNN)and the mean temperature(Tav),respectively during 1986-2005.Compared to the reference period(1995-2014),FD decreased significantly,but GSL,SU,TNN and Tav increased obviously from 2023 to 2100 under three scenarios.Furthermore,it was indicated that FD(GSL,SU,TNN and Tav)were less(more)than that in 1995-2014 during the 21st century under three scenarios over Guizhou,and the decrease(increase)was proportional to the emission scenario,with the amplitude of FD(GSL)reducing(growing)from south to north,SU rising from northeast to southwest,TNN/Tav going up from southwest to northeast.
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