摘要
黑龙江省大豆生长季冷害发生频次高、影响重,构建黑龙江省大豆延迟型冷害指标,对大豆防灾减灾、保障大豆安全生产具有重要意义.利用 1961-2020 年黑龙江省 73 县(市、区)大豆产量资料及气象站逐日温度资料,以 5-9 月各月月平均温度之和的距平值为致灾因子,利用致灾因子和减产率的线性关系确定冷害阈值,构建黑龙江省大豆延迟型冷害指标并验证.结果表明:研究区大豆在 5 个种植区轻度冷害阈值分别为-1.8℃、-1.9℃、-1.9℃、-2.0℃、-2.0℃,中度冷害阈值分别为-2.0℃、-2.2℃、-2.3℃、-2.4℃、-2.6℃,重度冷害阈值分别为-2.2℃、-2.5℃、-2.7℃、-2.9℃、-3.1℃.经检验,大豆延迟型冷害指标对冷害发生趋势判识平均准确率 83%,对冷害发生等级判识平均准确率 62%,典型冷害年判识冷害平均准确率 93%.综上所述,大豆延迟型冷害指标界定及评价黑龙江省大豆生长季延迟型冷害准确率较高,指标获取容易且实用性强.
Abstract
The frequency of chilling injury during the soybean growing season in Heilongjiang province was higher,and the impact was severe.The index for delayed-type chilling injury on soybean in Heilongjiang province was calculated.It was important to prevent and mitigate disasters and ensure safe production of soybeans.In this paper,the soybean yield data of 73 cities and counties in Heilongjiang province from 1961 to 2020,and the daily temperature data of 73 weather stations in the research area were used.Anomalies value of the sum of monthly average temperatures from May to September were taken as hazard factors,respectively.The threshold was determined by regression,which used hazard factors and yield variability to calculate the threshold,which passed the test,and then established an index for delayed chilling injury on soybeans in Heilongjiang province.The results showed that,total monthly average temperature anomaly indicators for delayed chilling injury of soybeans in the study area from May to September correspond to five planting areas,the mild chilling injury thresholds were-1.8℃,-1.9℃,-1.9℃,-2.0℃,-2.0℃,moderate chilling injury thresholds were-2.0℃,-2.2℃,-2.3℃,-2.4℃,-2.6℃,and severe chilling injury thresholds were-2.2℃,-2.5℃,-2.7℃,-2.9℃,-3.1℃.After testing,the average accuracy rate of identifying the occurrence trend of delayed-type chilling injury in soybean was 83%,the average accuracy rate of identifying the level of cold damage occurrence was 62%,and the average accuracy rate of identifying cold damage in typical cold damage years was 93%.In summary,the definition and evaluation of the delayed chill injury indicator for the soybean growing season in Heilongjiang province has a high accuracy rate,easy access to the indicator,and strong practicality.
基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2022YFD2300201)
黑龙江省自然科学基金(LH2022D025)
中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所联合开放基金(2022SYIAEKFZD04-02)
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(2020SYIAEHZ1)
NETL
NSTL
万方数据