Spatial-temporal Variation of Meteorological Disaster Risk for Camellia oleifera in Hunan under Climate Change
To investigate the spatial-temporal variability of the meteorological disaster risk to Camellia oleifera in Hunan,the high-resolution historical meteorological data from 1961 to 2020 and the BCC_CSM model forecast data from 2021 to 2050 were used.The comprehensive meteorological disaster index of Camellia oleifera was used to analyze spatial-temporal features,geocentric changes and displacements of meteorological disaster risk in Hunan.The results showed a general decline in the meteorological disaster rating of Camellia oleifera between 1991 to 2020 compared to the 1961 to 1990 period.The proportions of high-level,medium-level,and low-level disaster areas decreased by 10.4,15.6 and 17.5 percent points,respectively,while the proportion of micro-level disaster areas expanded by 43.5 percent points.The mean altitude at each level was increased.Compared with the period from 1991 to 2020,the area proportions at the medium-level and low-level disaster increased by 46.6 and 20.6 percent points,respectively,while they decreased by 63.4 and 3.8 percent points at the micro-level and high-level disaster in the period from 2021 to 2050.In addition,the mean altitude increased at high-level and micro-level disaster,but decreased at low-level and medium-level.In the first 30 years,micro-level disasters dominated in Hunan.Over the next 30 years,micro-level disasters will shrink to mainly southeastern Hunan,low-level disasters will expand across Hunan,medium-level disasters will shift to the north,and high-level disasters will move to northwest Hunan.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
