鲁西南区域性高温干旱复合事件特征及危险性分析
Characteristics and Dangerous Analysis on Regional Compound High Temperature and Drought Events in Southwest of Shandong Province
李瑞英 1吕桂恒 1郝晓雷 1樊杰 1江晓东2
作者信息
- 1. 山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,济南 250031;山东省菏泽市气象局,菏泽 274000
- 2. 江苏省农业气象重点实验室/南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,南京 210044
- 折叠
摘要
基于山东西南部 28 个气象观测站 1991-2022 年3-10 月逐日气温和降水量数据,根据区域性高温过程等级划分标准和区域性干旱过程监测评估方法,识别区域性高温、干旱及高温干旱复合事件,并开展相应的发生特征和致灾危险性分析.结果表明:(1)山东西南部区域性高温事件发生频次显著增多,开始日期显著提前,高温强度呈微弱增强变化;区域性干旱事件具有连发特征,发生频次增加,干旱强度趋于减弱;高温干旱复合事件集中发生于 6-7 月,发生频次增加,开始日期有所提前.(2)高温致灾危险性分布区域与高温强度分布区域基本一致,自西向东递减,高危险性区域主要分布在西部;干旱致灾危险性分布区域与干旱强度分布区域基本一致,自南向北递减,高危险性区域主要分布在南部;高温干旱复合致灾危险性分布区域与高温危险性区域分布规律较为相似,危险性自西向东递减.(3)随着气候变暖,山东西南部未来发生高温、干旱和高温干旱复合事件的风险加大.
Abstract
Based on the daily temperature,precipitation data and other factors of 28 meteorological stations in southwest of Shandong province from March to October,1991 to 2022,the regional high temperature events,drought events,compound high temperature and drought events were identified,according to the classification of regional high temperature weather process,monitoring and assessment method of regional drought process,the characteristics and hazard dangers were analyzed.The results showed that:(1)the frequency of regional high temperature events increased significantly,the start time was significantly advanced,the intensity increased weakly.Regional drought events had recurrent features with increased frequency and a weakening trend in intensity.Compound high temperature and drought events were concentrated in June-July with increased frequency and earlier start time.(2)The dangerous areas of high temperature were basically with intensity areas,decreasing from west to east,the highest dangerous areas were distributed in west.Drought danger areas were essentially intensity zones,decreasing from south to north,with the highest danger areas located in the south.Dangerous regions of compound heat and drought were more similar to dangerous regions of heat,decreasing from west to east.(3)The risk of high temperature events,drought events and compound events will be occurring greater with the climate warming in southwest of Shandong province.
关键词
高温干旱复合/特征/信息扩散理论/危险性Key words
Compound high temperature and drought/Characteristics/Information diffusion theory/Dangerous引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金(41875140)
山东省气象局科研项目(2021SDYD26)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据