可再生能源发展情景设计及评价研究
Study on Design and Evaluation of the Development Scenarios of Renewable Energy
刘贞 1张希良 2高虎3
作者信息
- 1. 重庆理工大学工商管理学院,重庆400054;清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084
- 2. 清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084
- 3. 国家发改委能源研究所,北京100038
- 折叠
摘要
通过对当前主要的情景设计及评价方法的研究,认为目前我国可再生能源发展迅速,但初期的部分基本工作尚未完成.尤其是可再生能源的供给潜力及其经济可开发性评价.基于此,提出一种基于动态成本曲线的可再生能源发展战略情景仿真模型.动态成本曲线生成的基本原理是在静态成本曲线基础上,考虑技术进步、可再生能源外部价值对静态成本曲线的影响,从而生成不同时期的可再生能源成本曲线,进而构成可再生能源动态成本曲线.考虑不同种类可再生能源技术进步水平、外部环境价值的变化,设计不同的可再生能源发展情景.基于可再生能源动态成本曲线,并对不同的可再生能源发展情景下的投资成本、能源效益、经济效益和社会效益进行了综合评价.最后通过一个案例,分四种情景,即不考虑技术进步,低环境方案情景;不考虑技术进步,高环境方案情景;考虑技术进步,低环境方案情景;考虑技术进步,高环境方案情景;分别给出了四种情景下的装机总量、投资总额、创造就业、污染物和温室气体减排量.
Abstract
After the method how to design and evaluate the development scenario of renewable energy generation was studied, it was found that although the development speed of renewable energy in China is rapid, some early basic work of renewable energy industry has not been completed. Especially, how to evaluate the potential and economic exploitation of renewable energy is very important. Based on the above, a scenarios simulation model for renewable energy development strategy based on dynamic cosn curve was proposed. The basic principle of how to generate dynamic cost curves is based on the static cost curve, and then considering the effect of technological progress and the external value of renewable energy on the static cost curve, the cost curves in different periods can be acquired; the dynamic cost curves can be acquired by these curves in different periods. Considering the technological level and external environment value of different types of renewable energy technology, four scenarios of renewable energy were designed. And then the investment cost, energy efficiency economic and social benefits were evaluated in different scenarios. In the end, a case was given. There are four scenarios: considering technological progress with low environmental programs, considering technological progress with high environmental programs, not considering technology with low environmental programs, and not considering technological progress with high environmental programs. Total installed capacity, total investment, job creation, pollution and greenhouse gas emission reductions in four scenarios were given.
关键词
可再生能源/动态成本曲线/技术进步/环境外部价值Key words
renewable energy/dynamic cost curve/technological progress/value of environmental externalities引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家973发展计划(2010CB955602)
国家自然科学基金(71073095)
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(10YJC630161)
出版年
2011
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据