Research on the Coal Market China and the Trend of International Coal Price
In recent years,China has become the largest coal producing,consuming and importing country in the world.After the mergence of domestic coal prices in 2013,the domestic coal price trend gradually matches with the international one.In spite of the excess supply of the domestic coal,the coal imports are still in a substantial increase,which has a big impact on the domestic coal market.Therefore,to accurately predict the international coal price is not only conducive to choose good opportunities to import coal,but also helpful to prevent further improve the national emergency coal reserve mechanism.The non-smooth series of international coal prices is decomposed and restructured to three items with different economic implications by the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) technology,such as the normal market fluctuations,major events and long-term trend.Then the three items are used to model the combined Support Vector Machine (SVM) to forecast coal price in one year.The study found that the intemational coal price will fall towards the long-term trend line and be in low fluctuations in year 2013.