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基于改进重力模型的省际流动人口的复杂网络分析

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省际之间的人口流动联系和空间布局特征对于活化区域间社会经济系统,改善地区间经济发展不平衡、缩减收益差距和产业结构调整具有重要作用.本文以复杂网络理论为研究切入点,研究了省际实际流动人口网络的小世界和无标度特征,探讨了基于人口流动量的权重网络中心度特征,并进一步对中心度与人口、经济进行相关性分析,同时对比研究了基于交通成本和重力模型的人口流动测度网络的特征,在此基础上建立了基于交通、经济和人口的改进重力模型的流动人口测度模型,构建预期省际人口流动有向网络,借助社会网络分析方法,探讨了网络的中心性、凝聚性、结构洞以及小世界特性,并且以第六次全国人口普查数据为实例进行实证研究.结果表明:①大规模实际人口流动网络呈现小世界特征,无标度特征不明显;②较低的地区人均GDP和较大人口总量是人口流出地区的推力,较高经济发展水平和较大人口总量产生对对外来人口的较强吸引力;③预期流动人口网络的整体中心性不是很强,网络中存在大量地位相对平等的节点,未来人口流动依然活跃于中东部地区,呈现两纵的格局;④西部城市在预期的省际大规模流动人口网络受限制性比较大,对其他省市的人口流动依赖性比较强;⑤网络具有一定的小世界特征,社团之间联系频繁,帮派性相对较为明显.本文通过对传统的重力模型进行改进,实现了预期省际流动人口的网络构建和空间格局分布,为政府管理部门为流动人口管理以及产业布局提供科学决策.
Complex Network Analysis of Inter-provincial Mobile Population Based on Improved Gravity Model
It is of great significance for activating inter-regional socio-economic system,improving inter-regional economic development,reducing income disparities and adjusting industrial structure to explore the relationship and spatial layout features of inter-provincial mobile population.In this paper,the features of small world and scale-free features of actual inter-provincial mobile population are studied from the point of complex network theory.The centrality characteristics of the weights Network based on population flows are also discussed,and furthermore,the correlation analysis of centrality,economy and population is carried out in this paper.Meanwhile,the features of network based the cost of traffic and gravity models are analyzed comparatively.Further,an improved gravity model for measuring mobile population based on traffic population and economic is established,building an expected inter-provincial mobile population network.With social network analysis,this paper explores the centricity,cohesiveness,structural holes and a small world feature of the network.On the basis of the empirical research of the sixth national census data,the results reveal that:Firstly,the network of actual large-scale mobile population renders characteristic of small world network characteristics,however,the characteristic of scale-free is not obvious.Secondly,the lower GDP per capita in the region and the larger population are the thrust of population outflow.The total population of the higher levels and greater economic development produce strong attraction to foreign population.Thirdly,the overall centricity of the network of expected mobile population is not very strong,and there is a large number of relatively equal nodes in the network.Future population movements are still active in the central and eastern regions,showing the pattern of two vertical.Fourthly,western cities are limited largely in the network of expected large scale mobile population and more depend on the mobile population of other cities.Finally,to certain extent,the network has small-world characteristic.There is frequent contact between societies,with an obvious characteristic of gang.By improving the traditional model,the paper realized the building of the expected mobile population network and spatial pattern of distribution.The results are of great value in decision making of management of floating population and industrial layout for government administration.

inter-provincial mobile populationcomplex networkimproved gravity modelsocial network analysis

陈锐、王宁宁、赵宇、周永根

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中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190

省际流动人口 复杂网络 改进重力模型 社会网络分析

国家科技支撑计划项目

2012BAK27B00

2014

中国人口·资源与环境
中国可持续发展研究会 山东省可持续发展中心 中国21世纪议程管理中心 山东师范大学

中国人口·资源与环境

CSTPCDCSSCICSCD北大核心
影响因子:3.126
ISSN:1002-2104
年,卷(期):2014.24(10)
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