How does China's emerging middle-income group affect carbon emissions?A study from the perspective of consumption
The lifestyle changes of China′s emerging middle-income group have raised severe concerns about growing carbon emis-sions while stimulating consumption.Converting qualitative concerns to quantitative understanding provides supporting information for national climate change mitigation and facilitates targeted mitigation measures for distinct consumer groups.This study developed a consumption pattern prediction model based on household micro-survey data and machine learning algorithms.Combining this model with the input-output table disaggregation method,it incorporated the heterogeneity of household consumption choices into the macro-simulation of environmental impact assessment.The study used this tool to assess the carbon emissions brought by the emerging middle-income group and compare the impact differences under various policy scenarios.The results showed that:① If the scale of the middle-income group doubled during 2018-2030(i.e.,a 24%increase in the share of the national population with an annual income of ¥33 000-80 000 at constant 2018 prices),the consumption upgrade of the emerging middle-income groups would bring an additional carbon emission of 0.27-0.36 billion tons in 2030.Compared to the business-as-usual scenario,the mitigation rate needed to increase by 8%-11%to offset the emission increase.② In the case where only the impacts of income increases were considered,the emerging middle-income group′s carbon emissions were significantly lower than those of the original middle-income group(a difference of 0.2-0.3 t at the per-capita level).The gaps implied the potential to collaboratively achieve income growth and carbon emission control by climbing the income ladder.③ Compared with the scenarios of enhancing human capital and improving social security,the impact of carbon emissions brought by the emerging middle-income group under the urbanization scenario was greater.Moreover,the carbon emis-sion increment under policy mix scenarios was not equivalent to the sum of the effects brought about by independent policies.The mix of these policies showed synergetic or counterproductive effects,depending on the policy implementation context.The study suggests that timely seizing the plasticity in the consumption transformation of China′s middle-income group and guiding this group to low-car-bon lifestyles through improving urban infrastructure and other measures in the process of urbanization are key to collaboratively achiev-ing the goals of common prosperity and carbon neutrality.
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